Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Q2 2018 Review. Global Downturn continues As US Peaks.

2018 so far has been challenging for most investors. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-29/global-stocks-suffer-worst-start-year-2010-emerging-markets-collapse At the beginning of 2018 the broad consensus was projecting “global synchronized growth” continuing from 2017. While US growth continued to rise through Q2 2018, the last quarterly review, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, showed … Continue reading

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Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation The most powerful influence on equity performance this year has been the global divergence of growth between the US and the rest of the world. As highlighted a few months ago, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, … Continue reading

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High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority?

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority? If you don’t understand debt growth you can’t understand the US economy or markets. As the chart above shows, the lesson of 2008 was that even a minor rest from debt … Continue reading

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The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”.

The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”. Is there anyone who would really invest willingly in a strategy that repeatedly produces negative real returns for around 14 to 29 years? These negative real return periods would also … Continue reading

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Stagflation/Quad 3, Real Yields, And Allocation To TIPS

In the US both breakeven inflation AND real yields have risen Positive real yields are hard find across the globe. A 1%-real yield in the US locked in for 10 years is internationally attractive. The cycle is likely in a … Continue reading

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Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

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The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

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5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

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IMF Warns On US Policy. Markets Depend On US NOT Fixing It.

No wonder the IMF has been forced to speak up on US fiscal policy. US finances have taken an extraordinary turn in the last year or so, and we are only just beginning to see the effects. 3 charts show … Continue reading

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US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

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