Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up.

Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up. I believe that on examining the post 2008 economic data, and comparing this recovery with past recoveries, the constant theme is Growth down interventions up.  In 2019 that experience  accelerated to a new … Continue reading

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Pay attention to precious metals

Pay attention to precious metals  “If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it…“ Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics In Dalio’s opinion, and my own, … Continue reading

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Q2 2019 Review. Can stock prices save economies? What Is Full Cycle Investing?

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/49828/week-ahead-all-about-that-fed I believe the relationship between data and the S&P 500 has been unprecedented in 2019. Looking at the chart above you see 2 very significant divergences in this relationship this year: 1. Historically data has preceded or been coincident … Continue reading

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Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are becoming increasingly ineffective and possibly even … Continue reading

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Jenga. Intentional Instability, Buybacks, Unicorns, and Zombies.

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading

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Global Financial Zombification. Russell 2000 Junk.

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading

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Q1 2019 Review. “Out Of Sample” Market Experiences Accelerate.

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading

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Global Policy Failure, Market Dislocation, Investment Strategies To Avoid Gambling

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading

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From Risk To Instability: Gold Allocation Review

From Risk To Instability For much of Summer 2018 I wrote about the multiple market extremes that emerged, and the associated substantial increase in risk. http://chrisbelchamber.com/10-extremes-mean-risk-in-financial-never-never-land/ Shortly following, volatility accelerated higher and 2018 ended as one of the worst years … Continue reading

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Debt And Global Money Supply Support Equities But What Else?

Global policy makers considered a 20% fall in the S&P 500 a concern, and changed their language around the end of 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/powell-says-fed-is-waiting-and-watching-with-patience-on-rates Historically, policy operating procedure responds by increasing either debt or liquidity to support equities. Liquidity is preferable … Continue reading

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