Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Investment Management. Why You Need A Complete Rethink. 4 Questions.

  (1) Do you understand why chasing past returns could be the worst approach to investment choice? Do you know what metric you should use? The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Returns are usually a main focus, … Continue reading

Posted in Notable Articles | Leave a comment

Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Petrodollar Power Plays

Some pictures make you stop and think. Last month King Salman became the first king of Saudi Arabia to travel to Moscow and he bows to Putin. He also brought key advisors with him to make bilateral deals.   Clearly … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Bond Market Signals A Clear Long Term Warning

One of the most reliable recession signals in history is the Treasury yield curve. The long end of the yield curve is warning of trouble. The 5/30 year bond yield spread has now fallen well below where it was just … Continue reading

Posted in Notable Articles | Leave a comment

Q3 2017 Review And Outlook

The chart above shows the extraordinary extent of the rally from 2009 both in time and magnitude . The ratio of the S&P 500 to its own volatility, VIX, shows the cycles in a new way. As rallies typically come … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Feudal Financialization

​ Illusions of Prosperity  Astonishing and accelerating income disparity Trump Tax Plan: 2.4 Trillion more debt mainly for the top 1%? More Debt and inequality is the default long term stagnation plan An emerging alternative idea, and in establishment circles? … Continue reading

Posted in Notable Articles | Leave a comment

The Cyclical And Debt Forces Pressuring The Fed. And Now QT1?

The Fed keeps changing tack from hawkish to dovish on rate rises The Fed enters a cyclical Cul-de-sac The Inflation Cycle The Growth Cycle The Fed enters a debt Cul-de-sac Simon Black explains the growing constraints on debt growth The … Continue reading

Posted in Notable Articles | Leave a comment

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment