Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Q4 2019 Review. 3 levels of Crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/stanley-druckenmiller-is-embracing-risk-again-just-timidly?mc_cid=ae838a4f94&mc_eid=d27ddc011b If there is a better long term record by an investment manager than that of Stan Druckenmiller then I’d like to see it. So we are fortunate whenever we get an update on his views. I believe that the … Continue reading

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Central Banks Are Committing To Intervention, As Earnings And GDP Growth Continue To Decline. 

Central Banks Are Committing To Intervention, As Earnings And GDP Growth Continue To Decline.  “Monetary policy can no longer be the main engine of economic growth, and other policy drivers need to kick in to ensure the global economy achieves … Continue reading

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Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up.

Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up. I believe that on examining the post 2008 economic data, and comparing this recovery with past recoveries, the constant theme is Growth down interventions up.  In 2019 that experience  accelerated to a new … Continue reading

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Pay attention to precious metals

Pay attention to precious metals  “If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it…“ Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics In Dalio’s opinion, and my own, … Continue reading

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Q2 2019 Review. Can stock prices save economies? What Is Full Cycle Investing?

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/49828/week-ahead-all-about-that-fed I believe the relationship between data and the S&P 500 has been unprecedented in 2019. Looking at the chart above you see 2 very significant divergences in this relationship this year: 1. Historically data has preceded or been coincident … Continue reading

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Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are becoming increasingly ineffective and possibly even … Continue reading

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Jenga. Intentional Instability, Buybacks, Unicorns, and Zombies.

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading

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Global Financial Zombification. Russell 2000 Junk.

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading

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Q1 2019 Review. “Out Of Sample” Market Experiences Accelerate.

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading

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Global Policy Failure, Market Dislocation, Investment Strategies To Avoid Gambling

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading

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