Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Jenga. Intentional Instability, Buybacks, Unicorns, and Zombies.

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading

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Global Financial Zombification. Russell 2000 Junk.

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading

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Q1 2019 Review. “Out Of Sample” Market Experiences Accelerate.

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading

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Global Policy Failure, Market Dislocation, Investment Strategies To Avoid Gambling

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading

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From Risk To Instability: Gold Allocation Review

From Risk To Instability For much of Summer 2018 I wrote about the multiple market extremes that emerged, and the associated substantial increase in risk. http://chrisbelchamber.com/10-extremes-mean-risk-in-financial-never-never-land/ Shortly following, volatility accelerated higher and 2018 ended as one of the worst years … Continue reading

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Debt And Global Money Supply Support Equities But What Else?

Global policy makers considered a 20% fall in the S&P 500 a concern, and changed their language around the end of 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/powell-says-fed-is-waiting-and-watching-with-patience-on-rates Historically, policy operating procedure responds by increasing either debt or liquidity to support equities. Liquidity is preferable … Continue reading

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2018 Q4 Review: What was your Return Relative to Risk (Alpha)?

Portfolio Return To Risk Chart. Far more information. By showing risk in addition to return a great deal more is revealed. The left hand vertical line represents return, while the horizontal line represents the standard deviation of daily returns. The … Continue reading

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Redefining Investment Management. Executing Transformation.

Tower Club, Tysons, VA 11am 12th January 2019 including lunch Chris Belchamber, Belpointe Asset Management What are the best practices of the most successful investors? Few seem to be clear and stray towards suboptimal outcomes. Chris will explain how this happens … Continue reading

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US Markets. The Debt Bet. 5 questions. Interest rate cycle turn.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/16/who-bought-the-1-6-trillion-of-new-us-national-debt-treasury-securities-foreign-domestic/ Investors in US equities should no longer be under illusions about what is the main driver of the rally since 2009. Debt, and government debt in particular. Attribution was examined in detail here: http://chrisbelchamber.com/stock-market-rally-attribution-debt-dependence-cyclical-risk/ The S&P 500 has left … Continue reading

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Transform Your Investment Mindset. Transform Your Long Term Wealth Accumulation.

Free Webinar 7pm to 8pm Monday November 5th Transform Your Investment Mindset. Transform Your Long Term Wealth Accumulation. The challenge of becoming a successful long term investor is rarely addressed in full. Without the proper foundation the markets will find … Continue reading

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