Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Feudal Financialization

​ Illusions of Prosperity  Astonishing and accelerating income disparity Trump Tax Plan: 2.4 Trillion more debt mainly for the top 1%? More Debt and inequality is the default long term stagnation plan An emerging alternative idea, and in establishment circles? … Continue reading

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The Cyclical And Debt Forces Pressuring The Fed. And Now QT1?

The Fed keeps changing tack from hawkish to dovish on rate rises The Fed enters a cyclical Cul-de-sac The Inflation Cycle The Growth Cycle The Fed enters a debt Cul-de-sac Simon Black explains the growing constraints on debt growth The … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

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How will your Investment plan manage these changes?

“The US system is highly optimized for financialization” Financialization leads to extraordinary imbalances, not just in income, but also debt What choice does the rest of the world have if they don’t like the dollar system? Asia gets ready for … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 4 – Active Asset Management. Further Steps To RVAR Improvement.

In Part 4 I will show what I believe is the path to further improvements to RVAR through making a shift to Active Asset Management with tactical allocation models. The case for a further improvements in RVAR from Active Asset … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 3 – Money Management Alone Can Substantially Improve RVAR.

In Part 2 I showed a weakness of one of the most frequently recommended passive investment allocation strategies, simply between stocks and bonds. I showed one potential remedy to the problem, but there are additional components to consider. In this note, I focus on one of … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 2 – Stock/Bond Passive Allocation Strategies Are Nonsense!

In Part 1 I formulated a clear metric for analyzing investment returns – Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns (RVAR). In part 2 I take a look at allocation strategies. Now that we know what metric to look for the job of … Continue reading

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Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns.

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. How can you judge whether your returns or any investment manager’s returns demonstrate superior asset management either compared to a benchmark or … Continue reading

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“Bubble or Recession: The Fed Must Choose”

Credit Growth Weak This Cycle And Now Falling Number of OECD countries with inflation below 2% is continuing to trend higher! How can the Fed possibly unwind QE? Jim Rickards believes the next recession is already on the way “Bubble … Continue reading

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Financial System Fragmentation. China Transformation.

Our financial system Is driving fragmentation Further centralization no longer provides benefits Recession signal from Loans and Deliquencies The burden of debt rises with falling inflation Carmegeddon Central Banks losing their fight with degrowth. Lost in their obviously false narrative. … Continue reading

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