Author Archives: Chris Belchamber

Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

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The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

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5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

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IMF Warns On US Policy. Markets Depend On US NOT Fixing It.

No wonder the IMF has been forced to speak up on US fiscal policy. US finances have taken an extraordinary turn in the last year or so, and we are only just beginning to see the effects. 3 charts show … Continue reading

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US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

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Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

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Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

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Engineering, Divergence, and global growth weakening.

 Asset purchases and debt growth have been unprecedented in recent years. Central Bank asset purchases have now exceeded $20 Trillion, or nearly half of world GDP. Corporations have also been buying back their own stock  at a rate of around  … Continue reading

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Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180302/ The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

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Bonds Beat Equities over 10 Years Says Model With 147 Years Of Data.

                    “Call us cynical, but the prospect of equity market excess returns for the next ten years measuring in the fractions of a percent is not nearly enough compensation for the … Continue reading

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