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Pay attention to precious metals

Pay attention to precious metals  “If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it…“ Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics In Dalio’s opinion, and my own, … Continue reading

Q2 2019 Review. Can stock prices save economies? What Is Full Cycle Investing?

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/49828/week-ahead-all-about-that-fed I believe the relationship between data and the S&P 500 has been unprecedented in 2019. Looking at the chart above you see 2 very significant divergences in this relationship this year: 1. Historically data has preceded or been coincident … Continue reading

Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are becoming increasingly ineffective and possibly even … Continue reading

Jenga. Intentional Instability, Buybacks, Unicorns, and Zombies.

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading

Global Financial Zombification. Russell 2000 Junk.

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading

Q1 2019 Review. “Out Of Sample” Market Experiences Accelerate.

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading

Global Policy Failure, Market Dislocation, Investment Strategies To Avoid Gambling

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading

From Risk To Instability: Gold Allocation Review

From Risk To Instability For much of Summer 2018 I wrote about the multiple market extremes that emerged, and the associated substantial increase in risk. http://chrisbelchamber.com/10-extremes-mean-risk-in-financial-never-never-land/ Shortly following, volatility accelerated higher and 2018 ended as one of the worst years … Continue reading

Debt And Global Money Supply Support Equities But What Else?

Global policy makers considered a 20% fall in the S&P 500 a concern, and changed their language around the end of 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/powell-says-fed-is-waiting-and-watching-with-patience-on-rates Historically, policy operating procedure responds by increasing either debt or liquidity to support equities. Liquidity is preferable … Continue reading

2018 Q4 Review: What was your Return Relative to Risk (Alpha)?

Portfolio Return To Risk Chart. Far more information. By showing risk in addition to return a great deal more is revealed. The left hand vertical line represents return, while the horizontal line represents the standard deviation of daily returns. The … Continue reading

Redefining Investment Management. Executing Transformation.

Tower Club, Tysons, VA 11am 12th January 2019 including lunch Chris Belchamber, Belpointe Asset Management What are the best practices of the most successful investors? Few seem to be clear and stray towards suboptimal outcomes. Chris will explain how this happens … Continue reading

US Markets. The Debt Bet. 5 questions. Interest rate cycle turn.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/16/who-bought-the-1-6-trillion-of-new-us-national-debt-treasury-securities-foreign-domestic/ Investors in US equities should no longer be under illusions about what is the main driver of the rally since 2009. Debt, and government debt in particular. Attribution was examined in detail here: http://chrisbelchamber.com/stock-market-rally-attribution-debt-dependence-cyclical-risk/ The S&P 500 has left … Continue reading

Transform Your Investment Mindset. Transform Your Long Term Wealth Accumulation.

Free Webinar 7pm to 8pm Monday November 5th Transform Your Investment Mindset. Transform Your Long Term Wealth Accumulation. The challenge of becoming a successful long term investor is rarely addressed in full. Without the proper foundation the markets will find … Continue reading

Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset.

Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset. Clarity Market conditions Buybacks Debt and Cycles Cycle sages Strategy Risk Assessment Execution and monitoring Summary and Mindset polarization ————————- Clarity In my view this is a very unusual time for investors … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 5.

Step 5. Defining The Most Important Investment Assessment Metrics. “Consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return.” Seth Klarman https://www.slideshare.net/vlad0/seth-klarman-the-forgotten-lessons-of-2008 “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”  Warren Buffett https://www.forbes.com/sites/agoodman/2013/09/25/the-top-40-buffettisms-inspiration-to-become-a-better-investor/#4d6752e97ccb “One … Continue reading

10 Extremes Mean Risk In Financial “Never Never Land”

“An economic recovery based around high debt is really no recovery” Larry Elliott This list of extremes seems to add up to a kind of financial “Never Never Land”. Most investors seem unaware of the extent and historic nature of … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 4.

Step4. The Simple And Essential Math Of Investing. Very little is more important, when it comes to investing than understanding the basic dynamics of risk and return and how to use these two crucial concepts to your best advantage. In … Continue reading

Stock Market Rally Attribution. Debt Dependence. Cyclical risk.

A clearer idea of the main drivers of the multi-year US stock market rally provides new insight about its durability and substance. The main causes of the rally can materially change perspectives about the outlook. Cycles allow for both bulls … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 3.

Step 3: Focused Alignment With Suitable Strategy. Avoiding Impulse Triggers And Linear Thinking. Debunking Investment Myths. “You’ve got to be careful if you don’t know where you’re going, ’cause you might not get there.”  Yogi Berra “With every new wave … Continue reading

Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes.

Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett “I believe that the highest probability bet you can make in your investment strategy is that human nature … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 2.

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 2. Step 2 of 7: How psychology and technology can improve your investing Step 1 focused mainly on describing the broad challenge of increasing the probability of long term … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 1.

Step 1 of 7: Awareness and understanding the challenge of long term investment success. “Man is a gregarious pack mammal. We don’t do well alone. Consider, solitary confinement is one of our worst punishments. Now, apply this to what it … Continue reading

Global Divergence Extends. Buyback Records. Debt Supernova. US Dollar Shortage. CRB verdict.

The global equity market performance divergence has continued to widen. It is very important to understand why as mean reversion could be a shock to US investors, with the S&P 500 outperforming global equities by around 15% this year! Buybacks … Continue reading

Q2 2018 Review. Global Downturn continues As US Peaks.

2018 so far has been challenging for most investors. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-29/global-stocks-suffer-worst-start-year-2010-emerging-markets-collapse At the beginning of 2018 the broad consensus was projecting “global synchronized growth” continuing from 2017. While US growth continued to rise through Q2 2018, the last quarterly review, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, showed … Continue reading

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation The most powerful influence on equity performance this year has been the global divergence of growth between the US and the rest of the world. As highlighted a few months ago, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD

Chris Belchamber is an independent trader, with over 25 years experience, and Chris Belchamber Investment Management is a Registered Investment Adviser.

Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are be... link to article

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