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Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset.

Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset. Clarity Market conditions Buybacks Debt and Cycles Cycle sages Strategy Risk Assessment Execution and monitoring Summary and Mindset polarization ————————- Clarity In my view this is a very unusual time for investors … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 5.

Step 5. Defining The Most Important Investment Assessment Metrics. “Consideration of risk must never take a backseat to return.” Seth Klarman https://www.slideshare.net/vlad0/seth-klarman-the-forgotten-lessons-of-2008 “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1.”  Warren Buffett https://www.forbes.com/sites/agoodman/2013/09/25/the-top-40-buffettisms-inspiration-to-become-a-better-investor/#4d6752e97ccb “One … Continue reading

10 Extremes Mean Risk In Financial “Never Never Land”

“An economic recovery based around high debt is really no recovery” Larry Elliott This list of extremes seems to add up to a kind of financial “Never Never Land”. Most investors seem unaware of the extent and historic nature of … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 4.

Step4. The Simple And Essential Math Of Investing. Very little is more important, when it comes to investing than understanding the basic dynamics of risk and return and how to use these two crucial concepts to your best advantage. In … Continue reading

Stock Market Rally Attribution. Debt Dependence. Cyclical risk.

A clearer idea of the main drivers of the multi-year US stock market rally provides new insight about its durability and substance. The main causes of the rally can materially change perspectives about the outlook. Cycles allow for both bulls … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 3.

Step 3: Focused Alignment With Suitable Strategy. Avoiding Impulse Triggers And Linear Thinking. Debunking Investment Myths. “You’ve got to be careful if you don’t know where you’re going, ’cause you might not get there.”  Yogi Berra “With every new wave … Continue reading

Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes.

Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett “I believe that the highest probability bet you can make in your investment strategy is that human nature … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 2.

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 2. Step 2 of 7: How psychology and technology can improve your investing Step 1 focused mainly on describing the broad challenge of increasing the probability of long term … Continue reading

Investment Mindset Bootcamp. Stop Gambling. Start Accumulating Long Term Wealth. Step 1.

Step 1 of 7: Awareness and understanding the challenge of long term investment success. “Man is a gregarious pack mammal. We don’t do well alone. Consider, solitary confinement is one of our worst punishments. Now, apply this to what it … Continue reading

Global Divergence Extends. Buyback Records. Debt Supernova. US Dollar Shortage. CRB verdict.

The global equity market performance divergence has continued to widen. It is very important to understand why as mean reversion could be a shock to US investors, with the S&P 500 outperforming global equities by around 15% this year! Buybacks … Continue reading

Q2 2018 Review. Global Downturn continues As US Peaks.

2018 so far has been challenging for most investors. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-29/global-stocks-suffer-worst-start-year-2010-emerging-markets-collapse At the beginning of 2018 the broad consensus was projecting “global synchronized growth” continuing from 2017. While US growth continued to rise through Q2 2018, the last quarterly review, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, showed … Continue reading

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation The most powerful influence on equity performance this year has been the global divergence of growth between the US and the rest of the world. As highlighted a few months ago, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, … Continue reading

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority?

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority? If you don’t understand debt growth you can’t understand the US economy or markets. As the chart above shows, the lesson of 2008 was that even a minor rest from debt … Continue reading

The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”.

The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”. Is there anyone who would really invest willingly in a strategy that repeatedly produces negative real returns for around 14 to 29 years? These negative real return periods would also … Continue reading

Stagflation/Quad 3, Real Yields, And Allocation To TIPS

In the US both breakeven inflation AND real yields have risen Positive real yields are hard find across the globe. A 1%-real yield in the US locked in for 10 years is internationally attractive. The cycle is likely in a … Continue reading

Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

IMF Warns On US Policy. Markets Depend On US NOT Fixing It.

No wonder the IMF has been forced to speak up on US fiscal policy. US finances have taken an extraordinary turn in the last year or so, and we are only just beginning to see the effects. 3 charts show … Continue reading

US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

Engineering, Divergence, and global growth weakening.

 Asset purchases and debt growth have been unprecedented in recent years. Central Bank asset purchases have now exceeded $20 Trillion, or nearly half of world GDP. Corporations have also been buying back their own stock  at a rate of around  … Continue reading

Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180302/ The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

Bonds Beat Equities over 10 Years Says Model With 147 Years Of Data.

                    “Call us cynical, but the prospect of equity market excess returns for the next ten years measuring in the fractions of a percent is not nearly enough compensation for the … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD
Chris Belchamber is a trader, with over 30 years of experience. Chris is the Founder of Chris Belchamber Investment Management, which he started in 2003.

MMT Dystopia and the Ex Debt Depression

“ … not included anywhere in the Constitution was the Federal Reserve, allowing it the power to guide interest rates ever lower or infinitely purchase assets.” C Hamilton  https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/05/how-federal-reserve-unilaterally-de.html Economic policy has now defaulted into exp... link to article

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