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Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

Engineering, Divergence, and global growth weakening.

 Asset purchases and debt growth have been unprecedented in recent years. Central Bank asset purchases have now exceeded $20 Trillion, or nearly half of world GDP. Corporations have also been buying back their own stock  at a rate of around  … Continue reading

Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180302/ The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

Bonds Beat Equities over 10 Years Says Model With 147 Years Of Data.

                    “Call us cynical, but the prospect of equity market excess returns for the next ten years measuring in the fractions of a percent is not nearly enough compensation for the … Continue reading

2018 Headwinds

                              Bonds take on the 30 year Yield downtrend The Government-Induced Liquidity Crisis  Global Divergences Market shifts are confirming – Japan, Germany, Copper  Yet sentiment remains … Continue reading

Bonds Breaking Equities. Core 7 Allocation.

                  The recent shift down in SPY may be confirming a larger head and shoulders pattern. Without a change in the trend towards higher bond yields the SPY is facing a growing … Continue reading

Are Your Returns Above The Line?

The chart above is a representation of risk and return in US securities markets over calendar year 2017.  The coloured squares show benchmark results for well known indexes. The green and red circles show two different hypothetical examples of portfolio results. The black line … Continue reading

“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

Investment Management. Why You Need A Complete Rethink. 4 Questions.

  (1) Do you understand why chasing past returns could be the worst approach to investment choice? Do you know what metric you should use? The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Returns are usually a main focus, … Continue reading

Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

Petrodollar Power Plays

Some pictures make you stop and think. Last month King Salman became the first king of Saudi Arabia to travel to Moscow and he bows to Putin. He also brought key advisors with him to make bilateral deals.   Clearly … Continue reading

Bond Market Signals A Clear Long Term Warning

One of the most reliable recession signals in history is the Treasury yield curve. The long end of the yield curve is warning of trouble. The 5/30 year bond yield spread has now fallen well below where it was just … Continue reading

Q3 2017 Review And Outlook

The chart above shows the extraordinary extent of the rally from 2009 both in time and magnitude . The ratio of the S&P 500 to its own volatility, VIX, shows the cycles in a new way. As rallies typically come … Continue reading

Feudal Financialization

​ Illusions of Prosperity  Astonishing and accelerating income disparity Trump Tax Plan: 2.4 Trillion more debt mainly for the top 1%? More Debt and inequality is the default long term stagnation plan An emerging alternative idea, and in establishment circles? … Continue reading

The Cyclical And Debt Forces Pressuring The Fed. And Now QT1?

The Fed keeps changing tack from hawkish to dovish on rate rises The Fed enters a cyclical Cul-de-sac The Inflation Cycle The Growth Cycle The Fed enters a debt Cul-de-sac Simon Black explains the growing constraints on debt growth The … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

How will your Investment plan manage these changes?

“The US system is highly optimized for financialization” Financialization leads to extraordinary imbalances, not just in income, but also debt What choice does the rest of the world have if they don’t like the dollar system? Asia gets ready for … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 4 – Active Asset Management. Further Steps To RVAR Improvement.

In Part 4 I will show what I believe is the path to further improvements to RVAR through making a shift to Active Asset Management with tactical allocation models. The case for a further improvements in RVAR from Active Asset … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 3 – Money Management Alone Can Substantially Improve RVAR.

In Part 2 I showed a weakness of one of the most frequently recommended passive investment allocation strategies, simply between stocks and bonds. I showed one potential remedy to the problem, but there are additional components to consider. In this note, I focus on one of … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 2 – Stock/Bond Passive Allocation Strategies Are Nonsense!

In Part 1 I formulated a clear metric for analyzing investment returns – Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns (RVAR). In part 2 I take a look at allocation strategies. Now that we know what metric to look for the job of … Continue reading

Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns.

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. How can you judge whether your returns or any investment manager’s returns demonstrate superior asset management either compared to a benchmark or … Continue reading

“Bubble or Recession: The Fed Must Choose”

Credit Growth Weak This Cycle And Now Falling Number of OECD countries with inflation below 2% is continuing to trend higher! How can the Fed possibly unwind QE? Jim Rickards believes the next recession is already on the way “Bubble … Continue reading

Financial System Fragmentation. China Transformation.

Our financial system Is driving fragmentation Further centralization no longer provides benefits Recession signal from Loans and Deliquencies The burden of debt rises with falling inflation Carmegeddon Central Banks losing their fight with degrowth. Lost in their obviously false narrative. … Continue reading

H1 2017 Performance Report

Central Bank domination of Economic policy and markets continues and accelerates Creates escalating economic and market dysfunction Unprecedented challenge for long term investment Yield curve and TIP suggests policy is already overly tight While the market is indicating that inflation … Continue reading

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Redefining Investment Management. Executing Transformation.

Tower Club, Tysons, VA 11am 12th January 2019 including lunch

Chris Belchamber, Belpointe Asset Management

What are the best practices of the most successful investors? Few seem to be clear and stray towards suboptimal outcomes. Chris will explain how this happens throughout the invest... link to article

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