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Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation The most powerful influence on equity performance this year has been the global divergence of growth between the US and the rest of the world. As highlighted a few months ago,, … Continue reading

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority?

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority? If you don’t understand debt growth you can’t understand the US economy or markets. As the chart above shows, the lesson of 2008 was that even a minor rest from debt … Continue reading

The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”.

The “Passive Investor” Paradox. No-one Is Really A “Passive Investor”. Is there anyone who would really invest willingly in a strategy that repeatedly produces negative real returns for around 14 to 29 years? These negative real return periods would also … Continue reading

Stagflation/Quad 3, Real Yields, And Allocation To TIPS

In the US both breakeven inflation AND real yields have risen Positive real yields are hard find across the globe. A 1%-real yield in the US locked in for 10 years is internationally attractive. The cycle is likely in a … Continue reading

Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

IMF Warns On US Policy. Markets Depend On US NOT Fixing It.

No wonder the IMF has been forced to speak up on US fiscal policy. US finances have taken an extraordinary turn in the last year or so, and we are only just beginning to see the effects. 3 charts show … Continue reading

US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

Engineering, Divergence, and global growth weakening.

 Asset purchases and debt growth have been unprecedented in recent years. Central Bank asset purchases have now exceeded $20 Trillion, or nearly half of world GDP. Corporations have also been buying back their own stock  at a rate of around  … Continue reading

Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                   The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

Bonds Beat Equities over 10 Years Says Model With 147 Years Of Data.

                    “Call us cynical, but the prospect of equity market excess returns for the next ten years measuring in the fractions of a percent is not nearly enough compensation for the … Continue reading

2018 Headwinds

                              Bonds take on the 30 year Yield downtrend The Government-Induced Liquidity Crisis  Global Divergences Market shifts are confirming – Japan, Germany, Copper  Yet sentiment remains … Continue reading

Bonds Breaking Equities. Core 7 Allocation.

                  The recent shift down in SPY may be confirming a larger head and shoulders pattern. Without a change in the trend towards higher bond yields the SPY is facing a growing … Continue reading

Are Your Returns Above The Line?

The chart above is a representation of risk and return in US securities markets over calendar year 2017.  The coloured squares show benchmark results for well known indexes. The green and red circles show two different hypothetical examples of portfolio results. The black line … Continue reading

“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

Investment Management. Why You Need A Complete Rethink. 4 Questions.

  (1) Do you understand why chasing past returns could be the worst approach to investment choice? Do you know what metric you should use? The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Returns are usually a main focus, … Continue reading

Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

Petrodollar Power Plays

Some pictures make you stop and think. Last month King Salman became the first king of Saudi Arabia to travel to Moscow and he bows to Putin. He also brought key advisors with him to make bilateral deals.   Clearly … Continue reading

Bond Market Signals A Clear Long Term Warning

One of the most reliable recession signals in history is the Treasury yield curve. The long end of the yield curve is warning of trouble. The 5/30 year bond yield spread has now fallen well below where it was just … Continue reading

Q3 2017 Review And Outlook

The chart above shows the extraordinary extent of the rally from 2009 both in time and magnitude . The ratio of the S&P 500 to its own volatility, VIX, shows the cycles in a new way. As rallies typically come … Continue reading

Feudal Financialization

​ Illusions of Prosperity  Astonishing and accelerating income disparity Trump Tax Plan: 2.4 Trillion more debt mainly for the top 1%? More Debt and inequality is the default long term stagnation plan An emerging alternative idea, and in establishment circles? … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD
Chris Belchamber is a trader, with over 30 years of experience. Chris is the Founder of Chris Belchamber Investment Management, which he started in 2003.

Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are be... link to article

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