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The Cyclical And Debt Forces Pressuring The Fed. And Now QT1?

The Fed keeps changing tack from hawkish to dovish on rate rises The Fed enters a cyclical Cul-de-sac The Inflation Cycle The Growth Cycle The Fed enters a debt Cul-de-sac Simon Black explains the growing constraints on debt growth The … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

How will your Investment plan manage these changes?

“The US system is highly optimized for financialization” Financialization leads to extraordinary imbalances, not just in income, but also debt What choice does the rest of the world have if they don’t like the dollar system? Asia gets ready for … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 4 – Active Asset Management. Further Steps To RVAR Improvement.

In Part 4 I will show what I believe is the path to further improvements to RVAR through making a shift to Active Asset Management with tactical allocation models. The case for a further improvements in RVAR from Active Asset … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 3 – Money Management Alone Can Substantially Improve RVAR.

In Part 2 I showed a weakness of one of the most frequently recommended passive investment allocation strategies, simply between stocks and bonds. I showed one potential remedy to the problem, but there are additional components to consider. In this note, I focus on one of … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 2 – Stock/Bond Passive Allocation Strategies Are Nonsense!

In Part 1 I formulated a clear metric for analyzing investment returns – Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns (RVAR). In part 2 I take a look at allocation strategies. Now that we know what metric to look for the job of … Continue reading

Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns.

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. How can you judge whether your returns or any investment manager’s returns demonstrate superior asset management either compared to a benchmark or … Continue reading

“Bubble or Recession: The Fed Must Choose”

Credit Growth Weak This Cycle And Now Falling Number of OECD countries with inflation below 2% is continuing to trend higher! How can the Fed possibly unwind QE? Jim Rickards believes the next recession is already on the way “Bubble … Continue reading

Financial System Fragmentation. China Transformation.

Our financial system Is driving fragmentation Further centralization no longer provides benefits Recession signal from Loans and Deliquencies The burden of debt rises with falling inflation Carmegeddon Central Banks losing their fight with degrowth. Lost in their obviously false narrative. … Continue reading

H1 2017 Performance Report

Central Bank domination of Economic policy and markets continues and accelerates Creates escalating economic and market dysfunction Unprecedented challenge for long term investment Yield curve and TIP suggests policy is already overly tight While the market is indicating that inflation … Continue reading

Federal Reserve Completely Lost As Global Credit Impulse Turns Down

​”The Federal Reserve is quickly becoming trapped by its own “data-dependent” analysis” Meanwhile, the global credit impulse is turning down fast Very soon the central banks are going to have to come up with a new trick “When looking at historical time … Continue reading

5 Vital Steps To Choosing A Financial Advisor

Should you talk to a Financial Advisor? Ask for Financial Planning? Asset Management? Wealth Management? Investment Management or an  investment manager? Investment Adviser or Registered Investment Adviser? What really matters to the client is not immediately apparent from any of … Continue reading

Here’s The Financial Plan …. Here’s The Investment Management Problem

“The entire status quo is based on the delusion that rapidly rising debt will never generate any negative consequences.” Central banks are completely committed to this delusion. Asset purchases accelerate to $300bn a month! ​”Necessary” as US economy now in … Continue reading

The Supernova Model Of Financial Collapse

​Every unsound investment has a very bad ending sooner or later Central Banks have made the global financial system unsound through excessive leverage  Central Banks Weakened The Economy To The Point Of No Return, With Massive Uncontrollable leverage Just Like … Continue reading

Launching Quant Agora

TradeStops have recently announced a new level of portfolio management capability that they call “Pure Quant”. This technology takes their already highly successful “Stock State Indicator” (SSI) and makes it easy to apply to a wider range of investment ideas … Continue reading

“What’s Killing The Middle Class?” Financial Planning consequences.

“The rising asymmetry of rewards within our economy has many drivers. If you read the dozens of articles on the decline of the middle class in the mainstream (corporate) media, you soon discover there’s a short list of the usual suspects: … Continue reading

“Shocking Truth” About Policy, Central Banks, and Markets

Central Bankers are the source of the instability they themselves are supposed to remedy. Central Banks are supporting mind boggling leverage in the system to fuel market support, compounding the instability. Central Banks then “solve” that problem too – Market Intervention … Continue reading

How China Could Change The Global Financial System.

Bank lending stopped growing immediately Trump was elected. Capital One’s charge-off rates are climbing steeply from Q3 2016. What happens when the old debt starts decaying faster than new sugar shot debt can offset? “objectives can only be achieved by … Continue reading

Stagflation Is Coming. US Investors Completely Unprepared. Missing Half The Policy Duality.

US bank loans peaked at the lowest level of any cycle going back to 1967 and have now rolled over. $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest … Continue reading

The Code of Ur-Nammu. The Natural Order Of Money And Why Abstract Currencies Fail.

Following last week’s emergence of gold on two of my main models, and last week’s note on the sudden weakness of credit growth…..                               … it … Continue reading

Creditism Meets Collapse In Loan Creation.

“loan growth in the US has not only ground to a halt but, for the all important Commercial and Industrial Segment, has dropped at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, some (until recently) economic optimists, such as Bank of America’s Ethan Harris, … Continue reading

When the “Solutions” Become the Problems

“Those benefiting from these destructive “solutions” may think the system can go on forever, but it cannot go on when every “solution” becomes a self-reinforcing problem that amplifies all the other systemic problems.” http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar17/solutions-problems3-17.html

Trade Confusion, Asia, And The Dollar. Wake Up For The Most Important Financial Moment Of Our Lives.

Asian gold demand goes exponential. At the same time as US debt has also gone exponential. Trump’s Disastrous Trade Policies Can only Accelerate The Trends G20 Dumps Free Trade At Trump’s Insistence US Investors Pile Into US Equities At The … Continue reading

Why the 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio Could Ruin You. Think Cycle Dynamics.

Why The 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio Could Ruin You. Think Cycle Dynamics. “We will only prosper if we relentlessly search for the truth, otherwise the truth will find us through volatility.” – Chris Cole Financial advisers have recommended for decades that … Continue reading

How Debt Matters. Many Countries Face Either Crisis Or Stagnation.

Steve Keen’s brilliant work is as essential to understanding the world economy as it is hard to find. In general mainstream economic academics regard his work more as heresy than as an opportunity to improve their tragic forecasting and policy … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD
Chris Belchamber is a trader, with over 30 years of experience. Chris is the Founder of Chris Belchamber Investment Management, which he started in 2003.

Intervention Dystopia, Risk Illiteracy, Investment Priority Confusion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are be... link to article

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