Category Archives: Market Notes

Q2 2018 Review. Global Downturn continues As US Peaks.

2018 so far has been challenging for most investors. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-29/global-stocks-suffer-worst-start-year-2010-emerging-markets-collapse At the beginning of 2018 the broad consensus was projecting “global synchronized growth” continuing from 2017. While US growth continued to rise through Q2 2018, the last quarterly review, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, showed … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation

Global Divergences, Challenging Cycles, Fragile Trends, Selective Allocation The most powerful influence on equity performance this year has been the global divergence of growth between the US and the rest of the world. As highlighted a few months ago, http://chrisbelchamber.com/q1-2018-performance-review-markets-in-transition/, … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority?

High On Debt Drugs. What Is Your Financial Priority? If you don’t understand debt growth you can’t understand the US economy or markets. As the chart above shows, the lesson of 2008 was that even a minor rest from debt … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment

Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180302/ The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

Posted in Market Notes | Leave a comment