Category Archives: Market Notes

Jenga. Intentional Instability, Buybacks, Unicorns, and Zombies.

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading

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Global Financial Zombification. Russell 2000 Junk.

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading

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Q1 2019 Review. “Out Of Sample” Market Experiences Accelerate.

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading

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Global Policy Failure, Market Dislocation, Investment Strategies To Avoid Gambling

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading

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From Risk To Instability: Gold Allocation Review

From Risk To Instability For much of Summer 2018 I wrote about the multiple market extremes that emerged, and the associated substantial increase in risk. http://chrisbelchamber.com/10-extremes-mean-risk-in-financial-never-never-land/ Shortly following, volatility accelerated higher and 2018 ended as one of the worst years … Continue reading

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2018 Q4 Review: What was your Return Relative to Risk (Alpha)?

Portfolio Return To Risk Chart. Far more information. By showing risk in addition to return a great deal more is revealed. The left hand vertical line represents return, while the horizontal line represents the standard deviation of daily returns. The … Continue reading

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Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset.

Q3 2018 Quarterly Review. Debt, Cycles, and Mindset. Clarity Market conditions Buybacks Debt and Cycles Cycle sages Strategy Risk Assessment Execution and monitoring Summary and Mindset polarization ————————- Clarity In my view this is a very unusual time for investors … Continue reading

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10 Extremes Mean Risk In Financial “Never Never Land”

“An economic recovery based around high debt is really no recovery” Larry Elliott This list of extremes seems to add up to a kind of financial “Never Never Land”. Most investors seem unaware of the extent and historic nature of … Continue reading

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Stock Market Rally Attribution. Debt Dependence. Cyclical risk.

A clearer idea of the main drivers of the multi-year US stock market rally provides new insight about its durability and substance. The main causes of the rally can materially change perspectives about the outlook. Cycles allow for both bulls … Continue reading

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Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes.

Positions, Valuations, And Cycles. All At Challenging Extremes. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett “I believe that the highest probability bet you can make in your investment strategy is that human nature … Continue reading

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