Category Archives: Market Notes

“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

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Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

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Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

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Petrodollar Power Plays

Some pictures make you stop and think. Last month King Salman became the first king of Saudi Arabia to travel to Moscow and he bows to Putin. He also brought key advisors with him to make bilateral deals.   Clearly … Continue reading

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Q3 2017 Review And Outlook

The chart above shows the extraordinary extent of the rally from 2009 both in time and magnitude . The ratio of the S&P 500 to its own volatility, VIX, shows the cycles in a new way. As rallies typically come … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 4 – Active Asset Management. Further Steps To RVAR Improvement.

In Part 4 I will show what I believe is the path to further improvements to RVAR through making a shift to Active Asset Management with tactical allocation models. The case for a further improvements in RVAR from Active Asset … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 3 – Money Management Alone Can Substantially Improve RVAR.

In Part 2 I showed a weakness of one of the most frequently recommended passive investment allocation strategies, simply between stocks and bonds. I showed one potential remedy to the problem, but there are additional components to consider. In this note, I focus on one of … Continue reading

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Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 2 – Stock/Bond Passive Allocation Strategies Are Nonsense!

In Part 1 I formulated a clear metric for analyzing investment returns – Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns (RVAR). In part 2 I take a look at allocation strategies. Now that we know what metric to look for the job of … Continue reading

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Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns.

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. How can you judge whether your returns or any investment manager’s returns demonstrate superior asset management either compared to a benchmark or … Continue reading

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