Category Archives: Market Notes

US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

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Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

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Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

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Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                            https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180302/ The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

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2018 Headwinds

                              Bonds take on the 30 year Yield downtrend The Government-Induced Liquidity Crisis  Global Divergences Market shifts are confirming – Japan, Germany, Copper  Yet sentiment remains … Continue reading

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Bonds Breaking Equities. Core 7 Allocation.

                  The recent shift down in SPY may be confirming a larger head and shoulders pattern. Without a change in the trend towards higher bond yields the SPY is facing a growing … Continue reading

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Are Your Returns Above The Line?

The chart above is a representation of risk and return in US securities markets over calendar year 2017.  The coloured squares show benchmark results for well known indexes. The green and red circles show two different hypothetical examples of portfolio results. The black line … Continue reading

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“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

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Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

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Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

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