Not Growth. Desperate Policy Extremes And A Debt Supernova. Only For Tactical Investors.

Since 2008, the growth in government debt has exceeded economic growth every single year!

“If government debt had not grown like this, the economy would have contracted every year!” Richard Duncan.

So clearly all policy makers had left in an even weaker year in 2016, was more government debt to fuel spending, and intervention to fuel more wealth effect.

Oh yes, and there also needs to be some narrative about Trump to make it seem like it could be real!

Investors are piling in on a false narrative at the highest valuations in history and the weakest fake growth since the 1930s depression.

The only long term winners in these markets are likely going to be tactical investors not long term investors.

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This Federal debt explosion over the last 8 years is beyond anything we have ever seen before.

The chart below shows why it has become a desperate policy imperative. The so-called “recovery” since 2008 depended almost completely on Federal debt!

Before 2008 the growth of government debt was always below nominal GDP growth. Since 2008, the growth in government debt has exceeded economic growth every single year!

Nevertheless, it is still the weakest “recovery” since the 1930s depression.

“If government debt had not grown like this, the economy would have contracted every year!” Richard Duncan.0317GovDebtfasterthanGDP

For any economy to grow, one or more of the following things must occur:

1) The Workforce must grow. Doesn’t look like it and demographics suggest the long term downtrend will persist.

0317LaborForceParticipation

2) Wages must increase, but they are going nowhere, with productivity chronically weak.0317medianweeklyearnings0217productivity2-6-16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) Credit must expand. While it is recovering again, it is still weak compared to previous periods.

0217ConsumerCredit2GDP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) Wealth must grow. That can be fixed quickly with intervention, but wealth to disposable income is already at all time highs.

0317Householdwealth2dispInc

 

Last year was even weaker than previous years, and even then half of it came from government spending!

0217half of GDPfromGov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So clearly all policy makers had left at the end of last year was more government debt to fuel spending, and intervention to fuel more wealth effect.

 

Oh yes, and there also needs to some narrative about Trump to make it seem like it could be real!
That should pump the survey data, too bad they can’t change the hard data.

0217hardsoftdata

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investors are piling in on a false narrative at the highest valuations in history and the weakest fake growth since the 1930s depression

0317CumulativeUSinvest flows

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you are investing for the long term you are a taking the biggest gamble in history.

If you are a tactical investor these are windfall gains that you can make and keep both up and down.

The only long term winners in these markets are likely going to be tactical investors not long term buy and hold investors.

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