Notable Articles

​"The Federal Reserve is quickly becoming trapped by its own “data-dependent” analysis" Meanwhile, the global credit impulse is turning down fast Very soon the central banks are going to have to come up with a new trick "When looking at historical time frames, one must not looReadmore...

"The entire status quo is based on the delusion that rapidly rising debt will never generate any negative consequences." Central banks are completely committed to this delusion. Asset purchases accelerate to $300bn a month! ​"Necessary" as US economy now in permanent recession X FedeReadmore...

"The rising asymmetry of rewards within our economy has many drivers. If you read the dozens of articles on the decline of the middle class in the mainstream (corporate) media, you soon discover there's a short list of the usual suspects: 1. Globalization / outsourcing 2. TechnoloReadmore...

Following last week's emergence of gold on two of my main models, and last week's note on the sudden weakness of credit growth.....                               ...Readmore...

"Those benefiting from these destructive "solutions" may think the system can go on forever, but it cannot go on when every "solution" becomes a self-reinforcing problem that amplifies all the other systemic problems."   http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar17/solutions-problems3-17.htmlReadmore...

Steve Keen's brilliant work is as essential to understanding the world economy as it is hard to find. In general mainstream economic academics regard his work more as heresy than as an opportunity to improve their tragic forecasting and policy advice. In this brilliant short version of hiReadmore...

A complete analysis of the Income Portfolio is hard to achieve as not many portfolio management tools can combine stocks, bonds, and individual corporate bonds, but 90% of the Income Portfolio can be analyzed in the Tradestops software, as only 10% of the allocation iReadmore...

"It's the Dollar Stupid" - Paul Brodsky   This article does an outstanding job of describing the real policies behind the headlines that are driving both policy and the markets. I regard it as a must read for investors, with so many great points made, and even a highly credible map forReadmore...

In this article, with highlights taken from the article as a preface, former British diplomat Alastair Crooke here attempts to list some of the difficulties Donald Trump will face in executing the economic measures he promised to take in his campaign. Crooke argues that, the financial crisReadmore...

The biggest natural investment advantage you are likely to find Sometimes the most profound phenomena are simply hidden in plain sight. They have been there forever but almost no one sees it. In the investing world, I believe that perhaps the biggest natural advantage investors can hReadmore...

‘Economics is for everyone’, argues legendary economist Ha-Joon Chang in our latest mind-blowing RSA Animate. This is the video economists don’t want you to see! Chang explains why every single person can and SHOULD get their head around basic economics. He pulls back the curtain on the ofReadmore...

John Hussman does a great job of explaining the astonishing series of policy errors that have led to the most extreme and unstable economic and market conditions in history. Two decades ago it might have seemed impossible that policy would have travelled down the road it has. Even now it iReadmore...

"A man’s ignorance sometimes is not only useful, but beautiful — while his knowledge, so called, is oftentimes worse than useless, besides being ugly. Which is the best man to deal with — he who knows nothing about a subject, and, what is extremely rare, knows that he knows nothing, or hReadmore...

Stanley Druckenmiller may have the best hedge fund record of all time. Not many investors can average around 30% per annum for a couple of decades. Druckenmiller is pictured above with George Soros his partner in perhaps the most astonishing trade of all time. These two legendary investReadmore...

  "Published on May 9, 2016 Using credit--which most other economists ignore--to explain why Japan, the USA and UK are among the "Walking Dead of Debt" and why China, Canada, Australia and South Korea are on their way to joining the Debt Zombies. This presentation is based on workReadmore...

It should no longer be a mystery what the outcome has been of the Federal Reserve's policies since 2007. Very few economists have the stature and track record of Dr. Lacy Hunt. In this 30 minute interview he brakes down the policies and their effects with startling clarity. He also reviewsReadmore...

Steve Keen not only predicted the crash of 2008, but he has also done more than anyone else to explain why this was so predictable.  He is the author of "Debunking Economics", which rigorously exposes the logical flaws in the key concepts of conventional economics. Steve Keen has also dReadmore...

It is always dangerous to accept "expert" advice based on "science".  Many poorly conceived notions have a way of becoming "standard" methodologies, and even become a qualifying requirement for advisors. This article does a great job in exposing the dangers of accepting theories that arReadmore...

Cycle Dynamic systems dynamically adjust portfolio allocation in sequence with the rhythm of the whole economic cycle. By managing risk and adapting to new trends in real time, back tested data, shown in full below, demonstrate that exceptionally good results can be achieved relative to wiReadmore...

Established on 17 May 1930, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the world's oldest international financial organisation. The BIS has 60 member central banks, representing countries from around the world that together make up about 95% of world GDP. So it is quite remarkable Readmore...

One of the world's largest silver miners describes why he wrote an open letter to the CFTC. To date there has been no response. Here is the interview out today explaining why an extraordinary situation has become common practice. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfA84Drx004 Here is a Readmore...

The heading chart shows two different pictures of the US economy. Which one are you in? Even in the higher chart above the economy is performing very poorly relative to its long term trend. <img src="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/52c4c212e4b01Readmore...

Steve Keen  has just released an outstanding new video which convincingly demonstrates the short sightedness of current mainstream economic thinking, which dominates current economic policy. These new insights should change the conversation about economics. This work has huge implicaReadmore...

"Eating Our Seed Corn: The causes of U.S. economic stagnation, and the way forward" - John Hussman Deep and powerful analysis from John Hussman. The bullet points say it all, but the analysis reveals just how far economic policy has gone off the rails over the last decade or so. The unsReadmore...

"The models we use for decision making determine the outcomes we experience. So, if our models are faulty or flawed, we make bad decisions and suffer bad outcomes. Professor, author and deflationist Steve Keen joins us this week to discuss the broken models our central planners are usinReadmore...

The widespread endorsement of the China led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may mark a major shift away from a US dollar centric global financial system. This has major implications for global financial markets and the pace of these developments seems likely to accelerate. TReadmore...

"Founding the Fed Instead of Ending Fractional Reserve Banking The Fed was founded under false economic premises–to prevent bank runs by providing temporary liquidity to banks which found themselves unable to redeem their certificates and demand deposits for cash and/or specie. The realReadmore...

  The Federal Reserve and the banking system now see no alternative to perpetuating the extraordinary valuation of financial assets relative to GDP, shown in the chart above. However, the system also constantly drains wealth from the many to the few. Consequentially, the household Readmore...

Patrick Byrne has developed a company information system that crowd sources intelligence from everyone in the company to produce much better management. There are several steps to what he calls a block chain system which shifts away from centrally planned systems towards peer to peer sysReadmore...

“After the 2008 financial crisis and the longest and deepest global recession since World War II, it was widely expected that the world’s economies would deleverage. It has not happened. Debt continues to grow. Since 2007, global debt has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt toReadmore...

Dr. Lacy Hunt is a rare economist who actually has an outstanding track record. In this interview he explains in simple terms why monetary policy has failed and the necessary fiscal policies are not currently a realistic possibility. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-27/monetary-polReadmore...

A brilliant summary explaining the evolution of the banking system. Starting from the early 20th century it has evolved into the current predicament through a series of important phases. I doubt there is a better discussion that provides so much knowledge and understanding so concisely on Readmore...

"Janet Yellen and her band of money printers think they are driving the GDP forward toward the nirvana of full employment and the achievement of every last dime of “potential GDP”. What they are actually doing, instead, is inflating the Wall Street bubble to ever more dangerous heights becReadmore...

Either stocks have permanently decoupled, continuing exclusively within the realm of central bank omniscience that has been rebuked time and again, or there will be a Period G where full harmony is restored; that is everyone’s greatest fear. Jeffrey Snider Ever since 2011 the marketsReadmore...

"Japan's monetary madhouse.... amounts to a financial suicide mission..... But what is truly scary is that Japan’s policy model has been greenlighted and adopted in one form or another by governments and their central banking branches all around the world." David Stockman http://daviReadmore...

This is simply information every citizen and investor needs to understand. This is a G20 worldwide policy that has already been put into place in the US. It has never been more important to understand the balance sheet of your bank. http://www.nestmann.com/its-official-the-worldwide-baiReadmore...

It is staggering what is not being covered by the media these days. Even when important news is covered it can be completely misrepresented. Remarkably the Wall Street Journal even celebrated the passage of last weekends budget bill. Here is a very clear summary of valuable information thaReadmore...

If we measure the accelerating banking concentration, this year's G20 clause permitting bank bail-ins, and now the rewriting of the post 2008 legislation which had seperated tax payers deposits from exposure to bank trading risk, then in what way has anything been done to limit, rather thaReadmore...

Economic growth is falling across the globe even as central bank intervention continues to accelerate to unprecedented levels. Central banks seem to be failing not just economically, but also distorting markets in the process. David Stockman analyzes the Federal Reserve's new justificatReadmore...

The most counterintuitive moves in gold prices over the last 2 years have coincided with Japanese economic policy announcements. Over a month ago I wrote about GYEN as a key indicator of central bank intervention, following the Bank Of Japan's Halloween announcement. Here is a remarkable aReadmore...

Are the gold and silver markets a key component of Financial Repression? Are there any limits to naked paper shorts? What can miners do when prices fall below cost of production? If solar energy takes off, is there enough silver to meet demand? This is a great discussion between Chris MartReadmore...

"Prices have been so distorted (the ultimate goal of Central Planning everywhere, from China to the EU to Japan to the U.S.) that the illusion of stability is impossible without more intervention.  This leads to two self-liquidating dynamics: diminishing returns (every intervention yieldsReadmore...

Investment risk may be a complex subject but Howard Marks has come very close to writing the definitive document on this subject. This may not become widely read but it is clearly a timeless resource for any investor who wants to dig deeply into this issue. link to articleReadmore...

"Cross your fingers, credit growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for economic growth. Economic growth depends on the productive use of credit growth, something that is not occurring." - Bill Gross, probably the most successful bond market investor over recent decades. link tReadmore...

"This cycle of entrenched interests protecting their skims and scams via central bank monetary policy is self-liquidating: every nation that pursues this "fix" will find its economy liquidated by financial implosion and the hollowing out of productive sectors to support crony-capitalist unReadmore...

Here is an excellent overview of the how Europe is currently failing to address its accelerating problems and seems to be drifting towards fragmentation: link to articleReadmore...

"My point is that manipulating markets strips markets of price discovery of assets and risk and the feedback that enables markets to recover equilibrium; decisions made when risk and price have both been suppressed or hidden by manipulation are necessarily catastrophically mis-informed." -Readmore...

"Just as many on the edge of suffering a heart attack have no awareness of the risk they face, our financial system is blind by design to the enormous systemic risks generated by central planning distorting price discovery for the political purposes of perception management. The hard limiReadmore...

The consensus remains convinced that Treasury Bonds are massively overvalued. Here is a brilliant and highly credible explanation why that may be completely wrong, with the bonus of some additional very well reasoned economic insight. link to articleReadmore...

Here is an excellent analysis of how stock buybacks have been massively reducing the corporate tax bill particularly for the bigger companies: link to article The scale of this new tax ruse is astonishing and has now reached the point of weakening corporate balance sheets as never beforeReadmore...

It is crucial that investors understand that it is time to choose between 2 different economic narratives, which are very well described here: link to article As investors consider this, it might help to realize that, for the fifth year in a row, JP Morgan has just been forced to shift fReadmore...

"... during the “difficult” economic times since the financial crisis began gathering force in Q1 2008, the S&P 500 companies have distributed $3.8 trillion in stock buybacks and dividends out of just $4 trillion in cumulative net income. That’s right, 95 cents of every dollar they earReadmore...

Brilliant explaination of the current economic predicament by Charles Hugh Smith. He explains how the Federal Reserve has now moved to the "duct-tape" era. This seems to have been confirmed implicitly by the central banks themselves in the recent BIS annual report: link to article What iReadmore...

Remarkable statements from the BIS about the current state of central bank policy around the world. Understand that the BIS is the central bank policy maker forum. link to articleReadmore...

Global economic policy makers are now fully engaged with short term desperate measures. It is crucial that investors understand how far policy has moved into the twilight zone. Markets no longer have much if any relation to underlying fundamentals. This video does a great job of describingReadmore...

Here are the results of the long term strategy used by GVAL as compared to US equities over the last 20 years. This is particularly relevant when US equities are historically very expensive. link to articleReadmore...

The gap between consumer spending and corporate profitability has never been wider. The Federal Reserve will have to continue printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKviBNo76iIReadmore...

Meb Faber's recent presentation is now on his web site. It is a very good introduction to how he thinks about asset management and operates his funds. He now manages SYLD, FYLD, GVAL, and GTAA. http://mebfaber.com/Readmore...

We now have to look at 2 different economies whenever new data comes out. This astonishing analysis shows that the 1% economy is now moving in an opposite direction from the 99%. This is the inevitable consequence of the special privilege the Federal Reserve provides. They are simply ensurReadmore...

Excellent video presentation by John Hussman, analyzing mean reversion, valuation and expected returns. articleReadmore...

William Black's no-nonsense simplification of the fraud that we call a financial system is both addictive in its clarity and stunningly concerning in its scale. articleReadmore...

This is an outstanding summary of the current state of the world economy, explained in the simplest possible terms. Jim Rickards is a current day financial Copernicus, amidst global institutions that seem unable to re-examine the underlying premise of our dysfunctional monetary system. htReadmore...

"S&P 500 earnings have barely grown by 10 percent since late 2011, notwithstanding more than a trillion dollars of share buybacks. So there are bubbles everywhere— even the broad market is up by nearly 50% without any justification accept that the fast money traders know the Fed will kReadmore...

Excellent video analysis of economic policy and its consequences. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ6cwJmI7sQ&feature=youtu.beReadmore...

The US stock market remains over owned, over leveraged and over valued. It is clear that most investors have not understood the enormous risk they are taking for inevitably poor long term returns. John Hussman provides a great service by producing clear charts showing highly likely outcomeReadmore...

This article has astonishing insight on current thinking at the higest level of central bank policy discussion. Very clearly there is growing awareness that over the last 5 years their policies have not provided anything close to a durable economic resolution and now there is very limited Readmore...

Do higher stock and house prices produce higher growth as the Fed believes? If so, not much, if any. This explains the poor forecasting by the Fed and why it may be a good idea once again to prepare for a different outcome than the Fed forecasts. http://ify.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploadReadmore...

The Federal Reserve now has a very difficult hand to play. This video does a great job of describing the set of issues that will shape its decisions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_Jt39TdcmM&feature=em-uploademail-ctrlReadmore...

Valuation is so crucial to long term investment success but so poorly understood. 100 years of data on US equities shows the record. The current CAPE value is 25. What are your expectations? http://mebfaber.com/2014/04/15/a-spectrum-of-possibilities-probabilities/Readmore...

The consensus believes that the US has just begun a long economic recovery, whereas we believe it is already quite advanced and vulnerable to events in Asia. Falling US MSCI profits are an extremely important straw in the wind that investors will ignore at their peril." - Albert Edwards hReadmore...

Podcast of Jim Rickards discussing his new book out next month with Simon Black. http://www.sovereignman.com/podcast/003-the-coming-collapse-of-the-international-monetary-system-13907/Readmore...

Since 2000 we have been stuck in a "permanent recession". Over this period economic policy and financial engineering have merely masked this reality. Unfortunately, all they have achieved has been to reinforce the "permanent recession". This will continue until the point when markets are fReadmore...

"Since these monetary/fiscal fixes (i.e. distortions) didn't address the real issues, all they can possibly do is increase the magnitude of the next collapse." Charles Hugh Smith http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar14/5-yr-fantasy3-14.htmlReadmore...

The US economy is now dependent on credit growth that is insufficient without additional induced stimulus. The Fed will not be able to complete its current planned withdrawal from QE without causing a recession. At some stage this year the Fed will have to come up with a new plan that may Readmore...

"The last time the "Chairman" of GM started writing his letters GM went bankrupt within 2 years. Yet GM is currently the most widely owned stock by hedge funds. The real "Chairman" is actually the founder of probably the most successful independent investment analysis company in the world Readmore...

"Unfortunately for banks, higher education, buggy whip manufacturers, etc., monopoly and propaganda are no match for technology. Just because a system worked in the past in a specific set of technological constraints does not mean it continues to be a practical solution when those technoloReadmore...

This is a very credible explanation of how the markets are and have been trading: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEhlH_YlQlc&feature=youtu.be&aReadmore...

The financial system has been operating under "Gresham's Dynamic" for some time. This simply means that bad ethics drives out good ethics. Professor Black is both a professor of law and economics, and was a high level financial regulator. linkReadmore...

If the US is unable to deliver Germany's gold to Germany. If the gold comex market is potentially one delivery request from default. If the top regulator in Germany has stated that metals manipulation is worse than libor. If Deutsche Bank has withdrawn from the London gold fixing. Then whaReadmore...

"The U.S. economy – thanks to the Fed – has been operating a $1 trillion share buyback program nearly every year since late 2008, buying Treasuries but watching much of that money flow straight into risk assets and common stocks instead of productive plant and equipment. My goodness! If X Readmore...

John Hussman shows why US corporate earnings are now experiencing significant downward pressure, at a time when expected long term returns on US equities are already very poor. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131216.htmReadmore...

The Inform Act is perhaps the most widely supported bill the economics profession has ever produced. 1000 economists including 15 Nobel Prize winning economists. Here is the Act and who supports it: http://www.theinformact.org/ Remarkably, this has not even been covered by major media, wReadmore...

The Bundesbank Museum has the whole history of money, superbly laid out. Michael Maloney does a great job of integrating the museum experience with his excellent video series the "Hidden Secrets Of Money". http://hiddensecretsofmoney.com/videos/episode-5Readmore...

"We were working feverishly to preserve the impression that the Fed knew what it was doing", Andrew Huszar linkReadmore...

"If we want to have a chance to remain the masters of gold an international agreement on the rules of the game as outlined above seems to be a matter of urgency." "U.S. objectives for world monetary system—a durable, stable system, with the SDR [ZH: or USD] as a strong reserve asset at Readmore...

Lakshman Achuthan's economic analysis should always be considered, particularly when it is way out of consensus. Just a 3 minute video.Readmore...

Eric Sprott has calculated that record gold demand in 2013 massively exceeds mine supply. This means that lower prices can only be achieved through a massive transfer of ownership. That is what is happening as the West sells and the East buys. http://sprottglobal.com/markets-at-a-glance/mReadmore...

"The Fed knows that the appearance of economic health would evaporate if stimulus were withdrawn. But like Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men, it also knows that the markets can't handle the truth.....the Fed will likely maintain the pretense that tapering is a near term possibility and thatReadmore...

New car loans for anyone in the US. New housing loans in the UK. Will a little more credit induced spending finally do the trick this time? The current economic paradigm believes that growth can be induced by debt. Always. Apparently, its just that simple. In any circumstance this will alReadmore...

It is strange enough that, over the last two years, the S&P 500 has gone up around 40%, without earnings growth. However, looking at how those earnings have been generated, it becomes clear that we are living in some kind of "Asset Price Distortion Field". http://www.streettalklive.coReadmore...

12 minute video explains the new high risk status of deposit money in a bank. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPsOopzp7e4Readmore...

In general, savings and retirement plans have been devastated by misguided policies. Stage one of any financial plan is to understand the environment we find ourselves in. http://www.mauldineconomics.com/images/uploads/pdf/2013_09_03_2OTB.pdfReadmore...

This article explains in the simplest possible terms the fragility of US equities, based on a deeper understanding of the nature of valuation and the earnings cycle. This is why a hedging strategy has become important. Why Stock Prices Are More Stretched than You Think: A Tale of 3 P/E MuReadmore...

"An unfortunate consequence of the most recent naïve interventions is that capital preservation in the long run and capital preservation in the short run have been made mutually exclusive. We are forced, by what James Grant calls the “PhD standard” to choose one or the other....... for theReadmore...

The gold market is not behaving as a natural market. There are several relationships, demonstrated by charts in this article, that show extreme imbalances. http://sprott.com/media/258481/7-2013-MAAG.pdfReadmore...

Unsound money is special privilege to a minority, which is usually disguised and often imposed, but is always at the expense of everyone else. How is our current worldwide "experiment" with unsound money going to turn out? How is our current worldwide "experiment" with unsound money goingReadmore...

"Real per capita disposable incomes took yet another hit. The astonishing annualized contraction of real per capita disposable income has now reached -9.21% -- dwarfing the -7.52% contraction rate recorded in the first quarter of 2009 (the worst quarterly contraction recorded during the ofReadmore...

It is not often you get the chance to listen to Kyle Bass, one of the best global macro analysts, with an astonishingly good track record through the last ten years. So many good points made here. next 18 monthsReadmore...

Fascinating interview with Catherine Austin Fitts. The only way we have to understand the world is by connecting the dots. This is a very information discussion that provides valuable investment insight. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv8w1c2w80I At the same time we need to guard againsReadmore...

Professor Alan Meltzer explains the increasingly obvious complete failure of QE policy. In the main QE has simply boosted bank deposits. This has turned the banking system into the biggest hedge fund the world has ever seen and enormous market distortions and bubbles while starving the reReadmore...

The latest bank loan and deposit data shows the absurd level of Federal Reserve produced bank deposits relative to loans. What to do with excess deposits? Speculate, of course. This is where a great deal of the inflation has gone - into the stock market. Here is the data Meanwhile, the reReadmore...

The accidental release of the Fed's Advisory Panel minutes on Friday show that US policy makers are well aware of the limitations of their current policy to stimulate the economy through a manufactured "Wealth Effect". Peter Schiff, who correctly forecast the 2008 collapse, explains what tReadmore...

A brilliant and clear analysis of the accelerating breakdown in the internal math of global markets. When economic policy becomes dominated by the imperative of defending the apparently uncontrollable privilege of money printing and fractional reserve banking, the natural rules of cause anReadmore...

When there is "a statistically improbable concurrence of events", some investigation is required. I would like to hear any counter arguments as to why Paul Craig Roberts has not reached very credible conclusions. Paul Craig Roberts, is a former Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury and foReadmore...

An exceptionally good review about what constitutes an appropriate gold allocation. Article 122Readmore...

Over the last 5 years total commercial bank loans and leases have been essentially unchanged. This means that virtually every incremental dollar of US "GDP growth" has come solely courtesy of Ben Bernanke's narrow money spigot. Banks do not feel the need to lend as they get deposits from tReadmore...

Alasdair Macleod does a great job of analyzing the recent extraordinary price action of gold in the long term context of different groups of market participants. Article 120Readmore...

Core financial problems were only temporarily fixed in 2008/9. Quietly, a new framework has been put in place. The rights and definitions of deposits has clearly been adjusted, just as the system of deposit insurance has become increasingly fictional. It is time to think very carefully aboReadmore...

This is the best economic article I have read in a long time. In the most simple terms it describes the flaws of our current economic policies, what the real choices are, and what must be done to put the economy back on track. Article 118Readmore...

Using the IMF's analysis the world's $600 Trillion derivatives markets are leveraged 1000 to 1!!!!! The IMF wonders where the actual underlying collateral would be if things started to go wrong. Is this underlying fragilty part of the reason why supervision of the big banks has become so uReadmore...

If you want to understand the evolution of central bank policy to the current "Inverse Volker" moment this is a brilliant and detailed description from Hinde Capital of how we got here and what may happen next. Article 116 (part 1) Article 116 (part 2)Readmore...

From an economic point of view our problems are not so complex. From this perspective a remedy is not so hard to find either. In these two articles, Charles Hugh Smith does a great job of simplifying the issues and explaining how our current system has fulfilled James Madison's nightmare. Readmore...

Treasury Publishes 2012 Financial Statement of the United States Government Based on generally-accepted-accounting principles—or GAAP-based accounting—the 2012 consolidated financial statements of the United States Government showed a $6.9 trillion deficit for fiscal 2012, up from $4.6 Readmore...

Charles Hugh Smith explains in simple terms the key financial problem now facing so many developed countries. This is the underlying long term development of how government finances have typically evolved. It is unfortunate that it is so poorly understood. Read MoreReadmore...

Why QE eternity became a necessity, and why its inflation component is only temporarily delayed (109) The main piece that most current analysis misses, and which is vital to a comprehensive understanding of our current economic predicament is the role of shadow banking. Zero hedge has beeReadmore...