Raising Cycle Dynamic Systems Allocation

Static or Dynamic Allocation?

Financial System instability as central bank policy fails.

Stephen Roach

David Stockman

“The Most obvious “Black Swan” ever! ” – Mark Spitznagel

Global policy failure also means extreme economic instability.

2 branches of the Fed flash recession warning! Even as the Fed says rates are going up?

The global currency system isn’t working

Asset valuations are at record levels.

Nothing can be fixed without a “Big Reset”

Why Cycle Dynamic Systems Now?

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Static or Dynamic Allocation?

The great majority of investment advisor assets have a stable or static portfolio allocation. Perhaps, in stable financial and economic circumstances there is a case for this. However, it has become very clear that both financial and economic conditions  have become extremely unstable. Any static allocation approach runs a significant risk of not being able to adapt to rapidly changing circumstances.

Financial System instability as central bank policy fails.

As these have pointed out, central bank policy hasn’t worked, probably can’t work, and the market no longer even respects new policy announcements. Stephen Roach puts it  this way:

“In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.”

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-negative-interest-rates-by-stephen-s–roach-2016-02

David Stockman adds:

“Stated differently, the overwhelming share of Fed policy emissions never leave the canyons of Wall Street….

They are irrelevant!  ZIRP and QE never get there. They just deform, distort, degrade and destroy free financial markets, turning them into casinos of crony capitalist corruption.”

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