Monthly Archives: April 2014

This article has astonishing insight on current thinking at the higest level of central bank policy discussion. Very clearly there is growing awareness that over the last 5 years their policies have not provided anything close to a durable economic … Continue reading →

Do higher stock and house prices produce higher growth as the Fed believes? If so, not much, if any. This explains the poor forecasting by the Fed and why it may be a good idea once again to prepare for … Continue reading →

The Federal Reserve now has a very difficult hand to play. This video does a great job of describing the set of issues that will shape its decisions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_Jt39TdcmM&feature=em-uploademail-ctrl

Valuation is so crucial to long term investment success but so poorly understood. 100 years of data on US equities shows the record. The current CAPE value is 25. What are your expectations? http://mebfaber.com/2014/04/15/a-spectrum-of-possibilities-probabilities/

The consensus believes that the US has just begun a long economic recovery, whereas we believe it is already quite advanced and vulnerable to events in Asia. Falling US MSCI profits are an extremely important straw in the wind that … Continue reading →

Podcast of Jim Rickards discussing his new book out next month with Simon Black. http://www.sovereignman.com/podcast/003-the-coming-collapse-of-the-international-monetary-system-13907/

Since 2000 we have been stuck in a “permanent recession”. Over this period economic policy and financial engineering have merely masked this reality. Unfortunately, all they have achieved has been to reinforce the “permanent recession”. This will continue until the … Continue reading →