by Chris Belchamber | Apr 27, 2014 | Notable Articles
This article has astonishing insight on current thinking at the higest level of central bank policy discussion. Very clearly there is growing awareness that over the last 5 years their policies have not provided anything close to a durable economic resolution and now...
by Chris Belchamber | Apr 23, 2014 | Notable Articles
Do higher stock and house prices produce higher growth as the Fed believes? If so, not much, if any. This explains the poor forecasting by the Fed and why it may be a good idea once again to prepare for a different outcome than the Fed forecasts....
by Chris Belchamber | Apr 23, 2014 | Notable Articles
The Federal Reserve now has a very difficult hand to play. This video does a great job of describing the set of issues that will shape its...
by Chris Belchamber | Apr 17, 2014 | Notable Articles
Valuation is so crucial to long term investment success but so poorly understood. 100 years of data on US equities shows the record. The current CAPE value is 25. What are your expectations? A Spectrum of Possibilities...
by Chris Belchamber | Apr 17, 2014 | Notable Articles
The consensus believes that the US has just begun a long economic recovery, whereas we believe it is already quite advanced and vulnerable to events in Asia. Falling US MSCI profits are an extremely important straw in the wind that investors will ignore at their...
