Blog

Q2 2021 Review. From Extreme Distortion To Unstable Dysfunction. One way to look at whether QE has distorted asset prices is to create a ratio chart. The chart below shows that this ratio of the S&P 500 to the Fed … Continue reading →

4 Key Insights You Need to Become a “Best Investor” Whether you are just starting your investing journey, or you have been an investor for years, your goal is probably to gain financial freedom. But investing, as you know, can … Continue reading →

Why Relying on Investing Benchmarks Might be a Costly Mistake The following is adapted from Invest Like the Best. https://geni.us/InvestLiketheBest To succeed as an investor, you must be able to determine how effective your investment strategies are. That’s probably not surprising … Continue reading →

Entrepreneur Insider LIFESTYLE 8 Books That Will Help You Re-Take Control of Your Life By drawing on the expertise of others, you can go a long way towards ensuring that your path forward will be a successful one. Peter Daisyme … Continue reading →

“Helicopter Parents generate a perfection of moral hazard, defined as there is no incentive to hedge risk because one is protected from its consequences. Moral hazard perversely increases the incentives to take on more risk because Mommy and Daddy (the … Continue reading →

  Luck plays a huge part in investing if you’re not doing it the right way. How would you rate your decision-making ability when it comes to your investments? https://maplemoney.com/podcast/know-your-risk-and-invest/

  The following is adapted from “Invest Like the Best”.  Most people would agree that one of the best ways to get better at something is by learning from an expert. Investing is no exception. In fact, studying the mindsets … Continue reading →

Q1 2021 Review: Highest average equity allocation to the worst ever long term expected return. Be a better investor than Isaac Newton. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsnr.2018.0018 Many smart and successful individuals often make tragic investment errors. It is not because they lack intelligence. … Continue reading →

  Fiat Money Explosion. Levitation and Instability.   https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-next-dollar-problem-has-just-arrived The US money supply explosion in 2020 was far beyond anything we have experienced before, and yet it was also just a continuation of the pattern of sustained acceleration in the … Continue reading →

Q3 2020 Review  In my Q4 2019 review I drew attention to the downtrend to new post 2008 lows in global growth, in terms of both trade volume growth and industrial production. This was the platform for the  global economy, … Continue reading →

Q2 2020 Review. Policy chaos adding to economic crisis   https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1275123151614115840 The chart above shows that the S&P 500, priced in gold, peaked in 2018, and is now in a downtrend. This correlates well with real GDP which has followed … Continue reading →

“ … not included anywhere in the Constitution was the Federal Reserve, allowing it the power to guide interest rates ever lower or infinitely purchase assets.” C Hamilton  https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/05/how-federal-reserve-unilaterally-de.html Economic policy has now defaulted into exploding debt and central bank … Continue reading →

The chart below shows the S&P 500 rally since March 23. This has coincided with:     1. A deep worldwide recession,  2. Continued US earnings decline over the last 18 months, 3  Forward expected earnings falling back down to 2017 … Continue reading →

​ https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/05/globalization-and-financialization-are.html I believe the chart above shows how our financial system morphed into creditism from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and then financial assets took off.  ‘Here’s what’s poorly understood: globalization and financialization die when they stop … Continue reading →

“All Currencies Have Been Devalued or Died” Ray Dalio “There are only a few times in history when M2 growth exceeded real output growth over a 5-year span by the same or a faster pace than is currently the case: … Continue reading →

https://twitter.com/epomboy/status/1255520425595088901  In my view, this is a picture of a failing financial system. What little growth there has been since 2008 has been driven increasingly by debt. However, monetary velocity continues to plummet. The Fed is having to make up … Continue reading →

Lacy Hunt is a must read, in my view, given his great track record. His latest review highlights that as massive as intervention has been, and likely will continue to be, in his opinion it will be highly ineffective in … Continue reading →

WATCH JPM. Last Kiss Goodbye? I believe perhaps the most important chart going into next week is JPM. https://twitter.com/KimbleCharting/status/1251643183647334407 Why is JPM so important? Because as massive as the Fed intervention is, in my opinion, on its own, it probably … Continue reading →

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/29/corruption-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-fed-treasury-corporate/ https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/26/helicopter-money-for-wall-street-federal-reserve-assets-balance-sheet/   The link above shows the extreme and extensive measures taken by the Fed this week, and the extraordinary acceleration in the Fed balance sheet. There’s much more to come. Jim Rickards analyses the The CARES Act, in the … Continue reading →

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/stanley-druckenmiller-is-embracing-risk-again-just-timidly?mc_cid=ae838a4f94&mc_eid=d27ddc011b If there is a better long term record by an investment manager than that of Stan Druckenmiller then I’d like to see it. So we are fortunate whenever we get an update on his views. I believe that the … Continue reading →

Central Banks Are Committing To Intervention, As Earnings And GDP Growth Continue To Decline.  “Monetary policy can no longer be the main engine of economic growth, and other policy drivers need to kick in to ensure the global economy achieves … Continue reading →

Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up. I believe that on examining the post 2008 economic data, and comparing this recovery with past recoveries, the constant theme is Growth down interventions up.  In 2019 that experience  accelerated to a new … Continue reading →

Pay attention to precious metals  “If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it…“ Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics In Dalio’s opinion, and my own, … Continue reading →

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/49828/week-ahead-all-about-that-fed I believe the relationship between data and the S&P 500 has been unprecedented in 2019. Looking at the chart above you see 2 very significant divergences in this relationship this year: 1. Historically data has preceded or been coincident … Continue reading →

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are becoming increasingly ineffective and possibly even … Continue reading →