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Q3 2020 Review  In my Q4 2019 review I drew attention to the downtrend to new post 2008 lows in global growth, in terms of both trade volume growth and industrial production. This was the platform for the  global economy, … Continue reading →

Q2 2020 Review. Policy chaos adding to economic crisis   https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1275123151614115840 The chart above shows that the S&P 500, priced in gold, peaked in 2018, and is now in a downtrend. This correlates well with real GDP which has followed … Continue reading →

“ … not included anywhere in the Constitution was the Federal Reserve, allowing it the power to guide interest rates ever lower or infinitely purchase assets.” C Hamilton  https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/05/how-federal-reserve-unilaterally-de.html Economic policy has now defaulted into exploding debt and central bank … Continue reading →

The chart below shows the S&P 500 rally since March 23. This has coincided with:     1. A deep worldwide recession,  2. Continued US earnings decline over the last 18 months, 3  Forward expected earnings falling back down to 2017 … Continue reading →

​ https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/05/globalization-and-financialization-are.html I believe the chart above shows how our financial system morphed into creditism from the late 1960s to the early 1980s, and then financial assets took off.  ‘Here’s what’s poorly understood: globalization and financialization die when they stop … Continue reading →

“All Currencies Have Been Devalued or Died” Ray Dalio “There are only a few times in history when M2 growth exceeded real output growth over a 5-year span by the same or a faster pace than is currently the case: … Continue reading →

https://twitter.com/epomboy/status/1255520425595088901  In my view, this is a picture of a failing financial system. What little growth there has been since 2008 has been driven increasingly by debt. However, monetary velocity continues to plummet. The Fed is having to make up … Continue reading →

Lacy Hunt is a must read, in my view, given his great track record. His latest review highlights that as massive as intervention has been, and likely will continue to be, in his opinion it will be highly ineffective in … Continue reading →

WATCH JPM. Last Kiss Goodbye? I believe perhaps the most important chart going into next week is JPM. https://twitter.com/KimbleCharting/status/1251643183647334407 Why is JPM so important? Because as massive as the Fed intervention is, in my opinion, on its own, it probably … Continue reading →

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/29/corruption-in-the-time-of-coronavirus-fed-treasury-corporate/ https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/26/helicopter-money-for-wall-street-federal-reserve-assets-balance-sheet/   The link above shows the extreme and extensive measures taken by the Fed this week, and the extraordinary acceleration in the Fed balance sheet. There’s much more to come. Jim Rickards analyses the The CARES Act, in the … Continue reading →

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-18/stanley-druckenmiller-is-embracing-risk-again-just-timidly?mc_cid=ae838a4f94&mc_eid=d27ddc011b If there is a better long term record by an investment manager than that of Stan Druckenmiller then I’d like to see it. So we are fortunate whenever we get an update on his views. I believe that the … Continue reading →

Central Banks Are Committing To Intervention, As Earnings And GDP Growth Continue To Decline.  “Monetary policy can no longer be the main engine of economic growth, and other policy drivers need to kick in to ensure the global economy achieves … Continue reading →

Q3 2019 Review: Growth Down Interventions Up. I believe that on examining the post 2008 economic data, and comparing this recovery with past recoveries, the constant theme is Growth down interventions up.  In 2019 that experience  accelerated to a new … Continue reading →

Pay attention to precious metals  “If you don’t own gold…there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it…“ Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics In Dalio’s opinion, and my own, … Continue reading →

https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/49828/week-ahead-all-about-that-fed I believe the relationship between data and the S&P 500 has been unprecedented in 2019. Looking at the chart above you see 2 very significant divergences in this relationship this year: 1. Historically data has preceded or been coincident … Continue reading →

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-05/disconnect-between-economy-stocks-record-highs The disconnect between global data and stocks has never been wider. I believe there is a simple explanation. In my opinion record amounts of dystopian interventions, both in the economy and markets, are becoming increasingly ineffective and possibly even … Continue reading →

Building a tower with blocks of wood can only go so far. It seems to work well in the beginning but at some point you know that every block you add is just one step closer to creating collapse. You … Continue reading →

“The number of zombie companies in advanced economies last year stood at 536, or 13% of the total, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.” https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/31/investing/stocks-week-ahead-zombie-companies-debt/index.html A September 2018 BIS report wonders whether this is setting a low interest rate … Continue reading →

If you feel as though you are walking through an Alice in Wonderland film set, you are probably not alone. It appears “Out of sample” market experiences are proliferating across many market measures. I believe this “out of sample” experience … Continue reading →

Global growth is uniquely challenged with PMIs in significant downtrends at the same time in the US, China, Japan and Germany.  The US is the only one of these 4 countries where the PMI is not already in outright contraction. … Continue reading →

From Risk To Instability For much of Summer 2018 I wrote about the multiple market extremes that emerged, and the associated substantial increase in risk. http://chrisbelchamber.com/10-extremes-mean-risk-in-financial-never-never-land/ Shortly following, volatility accelerated higher and 2018 ended as one of the worst years … Continue reading →

Global policy makers considered a 20% fall in the S&P 500 a concern, and changed their language around the end of 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-10/powell-says-fed-is-waiting-and-watching-with-patience-on-rates Historically, policy operating procedure responds by increasing either debt or liquidity to support equities. Liquidity is preferable … Continue reading →

Portfolio Return To Risk Chart. Far more information. By showing risk in addition to return a great deal more is revealed. The left hand vertical line represents return, while the horizontal line represents the standard deviation of daily returns. The … Continue reading →

Tower Club, Tysons, VA 11am 12th January 2019 including lunch Chris Belchamber, Belpointe Asset Management What are the best practices of the most successful investors? Few seem to be clear and stray towards suboptimal outcomes. Chris will explain how this happens … Continue reading →

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/16/who-bought-the-1-6-trillion-of-new-us-national-debt-treasury-securities-foreign-domestic/ Investors in US equities should no longer be under illusions about what is the main driver of the rally since 2009. Debt, and government debt in particular. Attribution was examined in detail here: http://chrisbelchamber.com/stock-market-rally-attribution-debt-dependence-cyclical-risk/ The S&P 500 has left … Continue reading →