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Weekly Insights & Strategic Blogs

Old Policies. New Paradigm.

Old Policies. New Paradigm.

Despite the extremes in historically reliable valuation measures, we can be certain of one thing: investors don’t care. They never do at market extremes. If they did, the financial markets could never reach extremes like 1929, 2000, and today in the first place…..What’s odd is how adamant investors seem to be not only that profit margins will remain above average, but that they will not retreat even from current extremes. Have investors looked at where margins are here? They’re not just higher than the historical norm – they’re higher than at every point in history prior to the past two years. Yet Wall Street analysts describe P/E ratios as “cheap” and “reasonable” without a moment’s hesitation about the denominator.

John Hussman

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Are You Prepared for a Secular Bear Market in Stocks?

Are You Prepared for a Secular Bear Market in Stocks?

This is a challenging overall negative atmosphere, but there will always be rewarding proactive cyclical opportunities to grow wealth. A Best Investor approach with careful risk management techniques provides the optimal performance in any environment. As in sport, the best performance requires having a gameplan for both offense and defense. The key to success is understanding the relationship of business cycles and financial asset classes.

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The Burden Of Central Bank Policy Is Growing

The Burden Of Central Bank Policy Is Growing

Although the Fed admits they have little understanding about inflation they believe they are now fully on it.

At the same time as they are tightening aggressively to contain inflation, they now seem unaware of the economic track record of doing this in an economic slowdown that Fed Chair Powell says he does not see.

The evidence strongly suggests that tightening into a slowdown will simply deepen the downturn. Now the European Central Bank (ECB) has joined this tragic trajectory, in even more challenging circumstances.

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