"Sooner or later, we all sit at the banquet of our consequences." Robert Louis Stevenson 2022 will be a banquet of consequences. A rising rate of change in both growth and inflation (quad 2), in place for most of 2021, has ended. The outlook is some...
1. Retails sales explode alongside Inflation. Philly Fed new orders hit a 20 year high. Quad 2 reflation confirming in Q4 2021. Total retail sales jumped by 1.7% in October from September, by 16.3% from October a year ago, and by 22% from October 2019. Savings...
1. The downtrend in dollar purchasing power is accelerating rapidly, and faster than you may realize. The CPI actually understates the downtrend due to "hedonic" adjustments made to the CPI. For example, compare the CPI New vehicles index to the base price,...
https://wolfstreet.com/2021/11/05/average-new-vehicle-price-spikes-19-in-10-months-to-44000-in-october-unit-sales-tick-up-still-down-34-from-march-amid-inventory-shortage/ The charts above show the extremes of higher prices and lower sales that are being experienced...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/what-is-the-federal-reserve-hiding-from-us 1. “The most inappropriate monetary policy that I’ve seen maybe in my lifetime.”- Paul Tudor Jones on the Federal Reserve via CNBC. Last week's chart showed the all time record low in the Real...
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1451905747235840004 1. The 5 year inflation break even hits 3%! Far above the 2% Federal Reserve objective. The markets are challenging the Fed's commitment to its inflation target. So why the extreme policy setting? The chart...
1. Persistently declining long term growth and an exploding debt burden has set Treasury yields on an ever lower crash point yield level. The chart above shows persistently lower highs on the Ten Year Treasury bond yield since 1981. Simply, the economy has ever more...
1. Current Inflation Spike Already Rivals Stagflationary 1973 and 1980. "The US Consumer Price Index has risen from 0.3% annualized to 5.3% over just the last 15 months. The last two times we saw this big of a rise over this short of a time were in 1973 and 1980, the...
1. Growth Investor? Or Liquidity Speculator? The chart above was produced by one of the world's biggest hedge funds, Bridgewater. It shows that Growth as an investment factor in equities has persistently declined since the early 2000s. The US equity peaks have...
1. Inflation is still trending higher. Inventory to sales reflects supply to demand. The everything shortage and price hikes mechanism is in full flow. This should be characterized as trending inflation. Check out the details from the Fed's Beige Book. “We need lower...
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