Insights & Blogs

“You might be shocked to learn that “your” money in your bank account is not actually yours. When you place money in a checking, CD, or savings account at the bank, you are actually making an unsecured loan to the bank.”
Chris Martenson

Government Insolvency is now in play.

Long Term Government Bonds are becoming uninvestable.

How can you ever really enjoy and relax about your current wealth and investment future unless accountability to capital preservation is hard wired into everything you are doing? Capital preservation must be your number one priority, as it is for all Best Investors. This does not mean you will make less in the long term? No. It means you will make more! It’s all in my book! https://geni.us/InvestLiketheBest

The chart shows that inflationary conditions, as seen last in the 1970s, are highly damaging for equity valuations. The average valuation for equities is more than 50% below the current level as measured by average 10 year earning

Economic policy in increasingly on tilt and muddled at best. Perhaps the issues of inflation and interest rates will resolve themselves and turn out to be temporary, but stable and healthy growth and inflation outcomes still appear to be a major uncertainty and investment accounts will need constant attention.

Typically stocks bottom well after the first interest rate cut, which may much longer than investors realize.

Given the debt levels, it will be much more difficult to reach the real interest rates levels needed to contain inflation.

The standard equity and bond allocation has been disastrous in 2022.

Investors who do not manage risk and drawdowns, have challenging compounding consequences.

Despite the extremes in historically reliable valuation measures, we can be certain of one thing: investors don’t care. They never do at market extremes. If they did, the financial markets could never reach extremes like 1929, 2000, and today in the first place…..What’s odd is how adamant investors seem to be not only that profit margins will remain above average, but that they will not retreat even from current extremes. Have investors looked at where margins are here? They’re not just higher than the historical norm – they’re higher than at every point in history prior to the past two years. Yet Wall Street analysts describe P/E ratios as “cheap” and “reasonable” without a moment’s hesitation about the denominator.

John Hussman

The Fed may benefit from adding QT and liquidity management to its interest rate tool, but this will likely be a direct hit on the stock market….

A healthy market and economy can’t continue for long without access to ample credit. The Bank stocks have been underperforming for well over 3 years. Far longer than they did just before 2000 and 2008.