Insights & Blogs

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Weekly Insights & Strategic Blogs

Central Banks Myths And Deepening Stagflation

Central Banks Myths And Deepening Stagflation

“The way you create deflation is you create an asset bubble. If I was ‘Darth Vader’ of the financial world and decided I’m going to do this nasty thing and create deflation, I would do exactly what the central banks are doing”
Stan Druckenmiller

The Federal Reserve is now responding with accelerating rate hikes following backward looking inflation data which showed a new high this week of 9.1%. However, the forward looking markets have started reacting differently.

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Crisis In Investment Management. Never Allocate To Risk As A Single Factor.

Crisis In Investment Management. Never Allocate To Risk As A Single Factor.

Bond market volatility and the Global Credit Impulse indicate a risk hurricane.

Best Investors always focus on minimizing risk.

“[Ptolemy’s] Earth-centered universe held sway for 1,500 years, showing that intellectual brilliance is no guarantee against being dead wrong” Carl Sagan

“…at the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control. Ninety-percent of any great trader is going to be the risk control.” Paul Tudor Jones

It has become an industry standard that asset management starts with a risk assessment of the investor. Once that is completed a portfolio is selected which in theory “matches” the investor’s risk profile. In most cases once the portfolio is allocated there is limited activity until the next review or interaction with the investor.

This process may have been sufficient for purpose for many investors in the relatively stable conditions and broadly benign investment environment of the last decade. However, in today’s markets it is likely to become clearer that risk based allocation and passive management is somewhere between suboptimal and simply dead wrong.

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Credit Cycle Dysfunction Has An Endpoint

Credit Cycle Dysfunction Has An Endpoint

It is important for investors to fully understand that current conditions are unprecedented in their own lifetime investment experience.

The scale of the credit cycle has continually expanded over the last 50 years, and policy makers are now confronting the biggest credit cycle peak just as they take on the largest inflation breakout in 40 years.

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Get Real! Real Consumer and Investor Distress.

Get Real! Real Consumer and Investor Distress.

Consumers and investors have had to react to a new economic paradigm in 2022, as initiated by yet another extreme shift in central bank policy. It is becoming increasingly clear that central bank policy is not working well as measured by increased market volatility and ever increasing misses in their forecasts and objectives. Investors will have to raise their game.

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