The Fed is on a collision course with market forces, as they are very unlikely to be able to complete the plan they have set out in this forecast. Their plan will reinforce the current decline in growth and may not even last beyond the growth collapse of the coming quarter.
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Investors who continue to experience sizeable drawdowns in their account value will have disappointing long term compounded returns. There are many systematic solutions to turn this around.
The inflation dynamics are considered along with how TIPS have uniquely useful qualities in an allocation.
R-star policy thinking may lie at the heart of both the inflation predicament and also a major allocation opportunity.
There are several components to the boom and now it looks like tightening financial conditions are coinciding with tightening fiscal conditions. That doesn’t unwind harmlessly because they want it to.
"The real problem for the Fed is that it has completely abandoned any semblance to a systematic policy framework, in apparent preference for a purely discretionary one. By relentlessly depriving investors of risk-free return, the Federal Reserve has spawned an...
Passive Investing and Bubbles. Distortion and Instability. Review of History, Math And Behavioral Factors.
“If you push indexation to its logical extreme, you will get preposterous results” - Charlie Munger Passive equity investing dominated investing styles at the close of 2021. This is highly typical following any decade of rising equity...
Since the beginning of December this Insight has been talking about the emerging headwinds for the first half of 2022. It is as well to understand scale and depth of the issues as the Fed moves towards less policy support.
https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1483554635222642689 A clear quad 4 (declining rate of change in both inflation and growth) market signal is gold outperforming equities. Investors should consider the probability of the data confirming this investment...
The Most Reckless Fed Ever With A Continuing Contradiction. Serious About Inflation? So Why Does Extreme Easy Policy Continue? Even Fed Chairman Powell states this week, "it’s a long road to normal from where we are.” "What generates the...
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