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Dangerous Flaws In Financial/Retirement Plans And Where To Focus

  The flaws of Defined Benefit retirement plans are still embedded in today’s financial plans Just looking at one projection of assumptions can be highly misleading Variability of returns lowers investment results, and is a flaw in projections Just variability … Continue reading

The Fed’s QT Blunder And Libor’s Warning.

The chart above shows the progression of Libor since the Fed’s first rate hike in December 2015. The progression was smooth until QT (discussed twice before this year) started to kick in at the end of 2017. Now Libor has … Continue reading

5 Steps Transform Long Term Investment Returns

Step 1: Dalbar 2017 Report: Understand why “investors suck at investing”. Step 2: Appreciate the benefit of consistently positive low volatility returns. Step 3: Understand repeatability of returns and use a better investment metric: RVAR (Repeatable Volatility Adjusted Returns) Step … Continue reading

IMF Warns On US Policy. Markets Depend On US NOT Fixing It.

No wonder the IMF has been forced to speak up on US fiscal policy. US finances have taken an extraordinary turn in the last year or so, and we are only just beginning to see the effects. 3 charts show … Continue reading

US Dollar. The 3rd Collapse? 7 Review Questions.

When a credit system fails, debts have to be devalued one way or another. At the core it is a currency system failure. The US trade and fiscal deficits are on the rise again, and as the chart above shows … Continue reading

Q1 2018 Performance Review. Markets In Transition

In the table below the performance for all major asset classes was negative for Q1 2018. Data from Orion Advisors This is a rare occurence because usually there are clearer trends in favor of one asset class compared to others. … Continue reading

Policy Makers And The Fed Are Now Just Playing Out The Endgame

  Ever since 2008 policy, markets and the economy, have been reflecting a new paradigm, which is shown in the chart above. The trend in GDP growth to federal debt issuance reversed decisively down in 2008 and the trend has … Continue reading

Engineering, Divergence, and global growth weakening.

 Asset purchases and debt growth have been unprecedented in recent years. Central Bank asset purchases have now exceeded $20 Trillion, or nearly half of world GDP. Corporations have also been buying back their own stock  at a rate of around  … Continue reading

Fed Fixes Failing. Risk Misunderstood. Message To Passive Investors.

                   The distinction between “Durable” and “Transient” market gains  Markets and experience make opinions not valuation or market history  The global economic peak is in the … Continue reading

Bonds Beat Equities over 10 Years Says Model With 147 Years Of Data.

                    “Call us cynical, but the prospect of equity market excess returns for the next ten years measuring in the fractions of a percent is not nearly enough compensation for the … Continue reading

2018 Headwinds

                              Bonds take on the 30 year Yield downtrend The Government-Induced Liquidity Crisis  Global Divergences Market shifts are confirming – Japan, Germany, Copper  Yet sentiment remains … Continue reading

Bonds Breaking Equities. Core 7 Allocation.

                  The recent shift down in SPY may be confirming a larger head and shoulders pattern. Without a change in the trend towards higher bond yields the SPY is facing a growing … Continue reading

Are Your Returns Above The Line?

The chart above is a representation of risk and return in US securities markets over calendar year 2017.  The coloured squares show benchmark results for well known indexes. The green and red circles show two different hypothetical examples of portfolio results. The black line … Continue reading

“Next Global Downturn Will Blindside Most”

Spectacular equity gains have a fragile and weak fundamental basis. Primarily based on a massive debt explosion favoring equities. Corporate earnings broadly unchanged over the last 3 years Job gains for high school graduates have been “modest at best” in … Continue reading

Tax reform bill: myths about tax cuts and truth about growth.

The US is the only OECD country that has ZERO value added taxes. Arguably, total US corporate taxes are the lowest. Scoring the bill it is hard not to see this bill as a massive further federal debt increase in … Continue reading

Investment Management. Why You Need A Complete Rethink. 4 Questions.

  (1) Do you understand why chasing past returns could be the worst approach to investment choice? Do you know what metric you should use? The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Returns are usually a main focus, … Continue reading

Are you anchored to the absurd? Are you ready for a complete rethink?

Since 2000, growth has become increasingly dependent on explosive growth in Federal Debt. GDP Minus Annual Federal Debt, is turning down again. While anchoring is a very understandable behaviour or condition, it can place investors in a highly dangerous situation … Continue reading

Petrodollar Power Plays

Some pictures make you stop and think. Last month King Salman became the first king of Saudi Arabia to travel to Moscow and he bows to Putin. He also brought key advisors with him to make bilateral deals.   Clearly … Continue reading

Bond Market Signals A Clear Long Term Warning

One of the most reliable recession signals in history is the Treasury yield curve. The long end of the yield curve is warning of trouble. The 5/30 year bond yield spread has now fallen well below where it was just … Continue reading

Q3 2017 Review And Outlook

The chart above shows the extraordinary extent of the rally from 2009 both in time and magnitude . The ratio of the S&P 500 to its own volatility, VIX, shows the cycles in a new way. As rallies typically come … Continue reading

Feudal Financialization

​ Illusions of Prosperity  Astonishing and accelerating income disparity Trump Tax Plan: 2.4 Trillion more debt mainly for the top 1%? More Debt and inequality is the default long term stagnation plan An emerging alternative idea, and in establishment circles? … Continue reading

The Cyclical And Debt Forces Pressuring The Fed. And Now QT1?

The Fed keeps changing tack from hawkish to dovish on rate rises The Fed enters a cyclical Cul-de-sac The Inflation Cycle The Growth Cycle The Fed enters a debt Cul-de-sac Simon Black explains the growing constraints on debt growth The … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. (short version with links)

  Part 1 – The best assessment of Investment Management is not Returns. Chasing past returns can be disastrous. So just looking at historical returns can lead to big problems. ​                   … Continue reading

How will your Investment plan manage these changes?

“The US system is highly optimized for financialization” Financialization leads to extraordinary imbalances, not just in income, but also debt What choice does the rest of the world have if they don’t like the dollar system? Asia gets ready for … Continue reading

Investment Management: Why You Need A Complete Rethink. Part 4 – Active Asset Management. Further Steps To RVAR Improvement.

In Part 4 I will show what I believe is the path to further improvements to RVAR through making a shift to Active Asset Management with tactical allocation models. The case for a further improvements in RVAR from Active Asset … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD
Chris Belchamber is a trader, with over 30 years of experience. Chris is the Founder of Chris Belchamber Investment Management, which he started in 2003.



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Q1 2021 Review: Highest average equity allocation to the worst ever long term expected return. Be a better investor than Isaac Newton.

Q1 2021 Review: Highest average equity allocation to the worst ever long term expected return. Be a better investor than Isaac Newton. Many smart and successful individuals often make tragic investment errors. It is not because they lack intelligence. Th... link to article

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