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The Supernova Model Of Financial Collapse

​Every unsound investment has a very bad ending sooner or later Central Banks have made the global financial system unsound through excessive leverage  Central Banks Weakened The Economy To The Point Of No Return, With Massive Uncontrollable leverage Just Like … Continue reading

Launching Quant Agora

TradeStops have recently announced a new level of portfolio management capability that they call “Pure Quant”. This technology takes their already highly successful “Stock State Indicator” (SSI) and makes it easy to apply to a wider range of investment ideas … Continue reading

“What’s Killing The Middle Class?” Financial Planning consequences.

“The rising asymmetry of rewards within our economy has many drivers. If you read the dozens of articles on the decline of the middle class in the mainstream (corporate) media, you soon discover there’s a short list of the usual suspects: … Continue reading

“Shocking Truth” About Policy, Central Banks, and Markets

Central Bankers are the source of the instability they themselves are supposed to remedy. Central Banks are supporting mind boggling leverage in the system to fuel market support, compounding the instability. Central Banks then “solve” that problem too – Market Intervention … Continue reading

How China Could Change The Global Financial System.

Bank lending stopped growing immediately Trump was elected. Capital One’s charge-off rates are climbing steeply from Q3 2016. What happens when the old debt starts decaying faster than new sugar shot debt can offset? “objectives can only be achieved by … Continue reading

Stagflation Is Coming. US Investors Completely Unprepared. Missing Half The Policy Duality.

US bank loans peaked at the lowest level of any cycle going back to 1967 and have now rolled over. $1 trillion of financial assets just in the first four months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest … Continue reading

The Code of Ur-Nammu. The Natural Order Of Money And Why Abstract Currencies Fail.

Following last week’s emergence of gold on two of my main models, and last week’s note on the sudden weakness of credit growth…..                               … it … Continue reading

Creditism Meets Collapse In Loan Creation.

“loan growth in the US has not only ground to a halt but, for the all important Commercial and Industrial Segment, has dropped at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, some (until recently) economic optimists, such as Bank of America’s Ethan Harris, … Continue reading

When the “Solutions” Become the Problems

“Those benefiting from these destructive “solutions” may think the system can go on forever, but it cannot go on when every “solution” becomes a self-reinforcing problem that amplifies all the other systemic problems.”

Trade Confusion, Asia, And The Dollar. Wake Up For The Most Important Financial Moment Of Our Lives.

Asian gold demand goes exponential. At the same time as US debt has also gone exponential. Trump’s Disastrous Trade Policies Can only Accelerate The Trends G20 Dumps Free Trade At Trump’s Insistence US Investors Pile Into US Equities At The … Continue reading

Why the 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio Could Ruin You. Think Cycle Dynamics.

Why The 60/40 Stock/Bond Portfolio Could Ruin You. Think Cycle Dynamics. “We will only prosper if we relentlessly search for the truth, otherwise the truth will find us through volatility.” – Chris Cole Financial advisers have recommended for decades that … Continue reading

How Debt Matters. Many Countries Face Either Crisis Or Stagnation.

Steve Keen’s brilliant work is as essential to understanding the world economy as it is hard to find. In general mainstream economic academics regard his work more as heresy than as an opportunity to improve their tragic forecasting and policy … Continue reading

Not Growth. Desperate Policy Extremes And A Debt Supernova. Only For Tactical Investors.

Since 2008, the growth in government debt has exceeded economic growth every single year! “If government debt had not grown like this, the economy would have contracted every year!” Richard Duncan. So clearly all policy makers had left in an … Continue reading

Zero Projected Real Return For the Next 12 years From Standard Portfolio Allocation.

It is probably generous to call this a projected zero real return. “Reason is slave to the passions” Perhaps, investors should calm their emotions before reading on. “When Speculators Prosper Through Ignorance” If investors don’t understand the facts of the … Continue reading

Near Zero Growth. Exponentially Rising Debt. Static Investment Gambles.

Growth in the US over the last 10 years has simply collapsed At this point global policy makers only seem to only have one plan – more debt Debt keeps on having to rise at a much faster rate than … Continue reading

Global Creditors Leave The Dollar. Central Banks Continue Buying Gold.

Holdings of US assets by the largest dollar creditors have fallen at an accelerating rate over the last 2 years. Is this a signal that the current US Dollar based  monetary system is falling out of favor internationally? Where would … Continue reading

Income Portfolio. Higher Yield AND Lower Volatility Than S&P 500

A complete analysis of the Income Portfolio is hard to achieve as not many portfolio management tools can combine stocks, bonds, and individual corporate bonds, but 90% of the Income Portfolio can be analyzed in the Tradestops software, as only … Continue reading

Tax reform, Trade, And The Dollar.

Trumponomics is heavily focused on a jobs revival AND trade adjustment through a Border Adjustable Tax (BAT). Here is some very timely insight into the latest policy thinking. “My associate Patrick Watson and I spent two weeks doing a really … Continue reading

How Debt Drives Everything. Stocks, Economies, Policy.

Why everyone has become economically uneasy   In 2008 the Fed created $29 Trillion debt, or around 9 years of total tax revenues.   It matters little that Dow Jones revenues have declined over the last 5 years.   S&P … Continue reading

80% of central banks buying more stocks. Trumponomics Trade Contradiction.

“within a few years the world’s monetary authorities who are tasked with “financial stability”, will have acquired a majority of the world’s equity tranche, effectively nationalizing it.“   A narrowing of the trade deficit is clearly negatively correlated with rising … Continue reading

Markets Break Away From Data

S&P 500 Throws Away The Earnings Connection   Total Tax Receipts Send A Message Last Seen In 2008   The Message Complicates Trump’s Growth Strategy   Junk Bonds Throw Away Default Rate Connection   ECRI Explains Why Trumponomics Is Almost … Continue reading

Bubbles Impoverish Investors Who Can’t Resist Them. Examining The Debt Bubble

The 3000 biggest US companies have never been more leveraged. Just this fact alone should concern most investors, but, as we have shown in previous notes, its much worse than that because this leverage is happening at a time when: … Continue reading

Trump. Trade And Growth Challenges.

The great problem with Trump’s trade policy is that it conflicts with his 4% growth target. Just on its own the 4% growth target will be challenging enough, as discussed below. However, it seems that there is confusion about the … Continue reading

“We think the markets have it fundamentally wrong.”

“It’s the Dollar Stupid” – Paul Brodsky   This article does an outstanding job of describing the real policies behind the headlines that are driving both policy and the markets. I regard it as a must read for investors, with … Continue reading

8 Reasons Why Trumponomics Will Flop

Junk Bonds 2 Year Negative Divergence Signal. Echoes of 2000 and 2007.   Trump post election rally breaks the records. Echoes 2000   Trump Record Euphoria and Advisors Hugely Allocate To Equities for 2017   What Really Changed With Trump? … Continue reading

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Chris Belchamber Info

Chris Belchamber Investment Management Bethesda MD
Chris Belchamber is a trader, with over 30 years of experience. Chris is the Founder of Chris Belchamber Investment Management, which he started in 2003.

MMT Dystopia and the Ex Debt Depression

“ … not included anywhere in the Constitution was the Federal Reserve, allowing it the power to guide interest rates ever lower or infinitely purchase assets.” C Hamilton Economic policy has now defaulted into exp... link to article

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