Category Archives: Market Notes

Weekly Investment Insight 09132021 – Inflation Pressure and Stagflation

1. Inflation is still trending higher. Inventory to sales reflects supply to demand. The everything shortage and price hikes mechanism is in full flow. This should be characterized as trending inflation. Check out the details from the Fed’s Beige Book. … Continue reading

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weekly investment insight 09062021

  Weekly Investment Insight 08302021 Focus Five 1.  “Narrow money supply is going off the scales. Yet at Jackson Hole it was never mentioned, except in a footnote. Equally incredible is the gullibility of the investment establishment knowing that money … Continue reading

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weekly investment insight 08302021

The 5 most impactful comments. 1. The US has the easiest financial conditions ever and is far behind the rest of the world in starting to reverse policy.  https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1431209487810060290 In fact the Fed increased asset prices over the summer even … Continue reading

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weekly investment insight 08232021

  1. Are you a Dunning-Kruger? How good do you think you are? 2. Central Banks cannot really taper with this slowdown. 3. The Dollar’s Debt Trap. 4. When the ducks are quacking, feed them. Stock issuance breaks all records. … Continue reading

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Weekly Investment Insights 08162021

1. The folly of ruling out a collapse. The valuation metric that most closely inversely correlates with poor future long term returns is unequivocal. 2. “Scramble for survival” for the next decade. Don’t miss Larry Lindsay’s Interview. 3. “Noise. A flaw in … Continue reading

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Q2 2021 Review. From Extreme Distortion To Unstable Dysfunction.

Q2 2021 Review. From Extreme Distortion To Unstable Dysfunction. One way to look at whether QE has distorted asset prices is to create a ratio chart. The chart below shows that this ratio of the S&P 500 to the Fed … Continue reading

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The “Helicopter Parent” Fed and the Fatal Crash of Risk. To Succeed as an Investor, You Need to Understand These 2 Simple Concepts.

“Helicopter Parents generate a perfection of moral hazard, defined as there is no incentive to hedge risk because one is protected from its consequences. Moral hazard perversely increases the incentives to take on more risk because Mommy and Daddy (the … Continue reading

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2020 Review: Fiat Money Explosion. Levitation and Instability.

  Fiat Money Explosion. Levitation and Instability.   https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-next-dollar-problem-has-just-arrived The US money supply explosion in 2020 was far beyond anything we have experienced before, and yet it was also just a continuation of the pattern of sustained acceleration in the … Continue reading

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Q3 2020 Review

Q3 2020 Review  In my Q4 2019 review I drew attention to the downtrend to new post 2008 lows in global growth, in terms of both trade volume growth and industrial production. This was the platform for the  global economy, … Continue reading

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Q2 2020 Review. Policy chaos adding to economic crisis.

Q2 2020 Review. Policy chaos adding to economic crisis   https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1275123151614115840 The chart above shows that the S&P 500, priced in gold, peaked in 2018, and is now in a downtrend. This correlates well with real GDP which has followed … Continue reading

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