Introduction To Cycle Dynamics – A New Approach To Active Investment Management

September 27, 2015

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Cycle Dynamic systems dynamically adjust portfolio allocation in sequence with the rhythm of the whole economic cycle. By managing risk and adapting to new trends in real time, back tested data, shown in full below, demonstrate that exceptionally good results can be achieved relative to widely used benchmarks.

A module approach then enables portfolios to be designed to meet each client’s investment goals.

Cycle Dynamics models provides multiple benefits to investors:

  1. Risk management is automatic and ensures that persistent downtrends are avoided, and allocation is constantly directed to long term uptrends for as long as they last.
  2. Cycle Dynamics adapts automatically to changing economic and policy environments. So constant revisions to an investment plan are no longer necessary.
  3. Three models have been developed for each of the main asset classes – Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities.
  4. There is also a model that focuses on allocation between the main asset classes. The Asset Selector focuses on the optimal asset classes at each point through the economic cycle.
  5. The Cycle Dynamic models provide 4 systems that can be traded in any combination, weighting, or sequence. In each case, when the models are combined they lead to further improvements in return for risk results. The 4 systems can be regarded as providing a complementary and comprehensive framework for the active management component of an investment plan.
  6. In all cases the Cycle Dynamic modules demonstrate very robust and favorable returns relative to risk, compared to standard benchmarks, over multi-year periods as shown in the model results below.


Asset Selector (click to expand)









Bondselector092615Bond Selector (click to expand)










Equity Selector (click to expand)









Commodity Selector (click to expand)Commodity092615


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