Blind to the economic cycle
ECRI explains how far they are off the economic cycle map
They are completely off on the credit cycle too
China’s hard landing has already begun
Negative government bond yields in Japan, Germany and Switzerland. There could be a problem.
US industrial production has been sub zero for 9 months
The central planning #beliefsystem is breaking down
“X” marks the source of the problem
Future of stagnation or system change
The monetary wisdom of Copernicus
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Blind to the economic cycle
No central bank has ever forecast a recession. Nevertheless, that has never stopped them from producing their comically inaccurate projections. From their ivory tower their perfect economic management is designed to produce constant economic nirvana. It has never worked but they are still quite sure it will! Janet Yellen is just the latest of the ever more confusing and confused Fed Chairs.
This intellectual deficit is now manifesting itself in ever more erratic policy direction changes from hawkish to dovish and back to hawkish. All it reveals is that the central banks have become increasingly impotent and delusional.
“She is intellectually mummified in a 50-year old Keynesian time warp that assumes the Fed can regulate the level of employment, inflation and output in a closed economy through the primitive tool of pegging the money market rate of interest.”
ECRI explains how far they are off the economic cycle map
“This attempt at a rate hike cycle has been exceptionally ill-timed, starting a full year inside of a cycle slowdown – the longest lag we have ever seen between the start of a growth rate cycle downturn and the beginning of a Fed rate hike cycle. Now – no matter what – we would have seen the longest lag ever between the first and second Fed rate hikes.“
They are completely off on the credit cycle too
“In this excerpt from The Macro Show this morning, Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner joins CEO Keith McCullough to discuss why the#CreditCycle is just beginning to wreak havoc on financial markets. Steiner cites the recent blowup in Synchrony Financial (SYF) as a prime example.”
China’s hard landing has already begun
Richard Duncan explains why China is now just beginning a hard landing.
Negative government bond yields in Japan, Germany and Switzerland. There could be a problem.
Just this week the German 10 year government bond went negative, and even more astonishing the 30 year Swiss government bond went negative. The chart below shows how far off any natural economic map the world markets have gone.
US industrial production has been sub zero for 9 months
The central planning #beliefsystem is breaking down
“X” marks the source of the problem
“As it happens, “X” correlates with Nixon shutting down the Bretton Woods gold standard in 1971 and the epic failure to get it fixed and restored in 1973. The drag, after a modest lag, filtered into the working economy. The rest is persistent stagnation for median families.”
Future of stagnation or system change
The current destructive financial cycle is coming close to its end as all it offers now is a future of stagnation. The article below is about Japan, but is it really any different from the other major economies?
“Take a declining population with declining rates of productivity growth and load it up with debt, and you get a triple-whammy recipe for permanent stagnation.”
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjune16/stagnation6-16.html
The monetary wisdom of Copernicus
“ALTHOUGH THERE ARE COUNTLESS MALADIES that are forever causing the decline of kingdoms, princedoms, and republics, the following four (in my judgment) are the most serious: civil discord, a high death rate, sterility of the soil, and the debasement of coinage. The first three are so obvious that everybody recognizes the damage they cause; but the fourth one, which has to do with money, is noticed by only a few very thoughtful people, since it does not operate all at once and at a single blow, but gradually overthrows governments, and in a hidden, insidious way.”
