Policy Ease Or Recession.

November 19, 2015

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How many US recession signals?

How many global recession signals?

“Bubble right in front of our faces”

If we don’t change the way money is created.

9 challenges for the world economic system

Nomi Prins “Entirely rigged political/financial system”



How many US recession signals?

Here is an article just to get us started on the growing list of gathering recession signals.


While many herald the latest jobs data as evidence of growth, payrolls still have not reversed the 9 month declining trend and the number of people with just one full time job has actually declined in recent months. All the full time job gains have come from people taking additional “full time” jobs!


Junk bond spreads continue to1115junkspreads widen, a very strong recessionary signal.










Industrial production is very weak at a new 1115IndProd5 year low.




Corporate cash flows are declining.1115margins-recession_0



How many global recession signals?

Japan has just entered its 5th recession1115Jap in 5 years.




The Baltic Dry freight index is also hitting record 30 year lows.



World import values extremely weak.


Bubble right in front of our faces

Central banks keep injecting liquidity to keep prices high, but all this means is that this has pushed net wealth to income to record highs as widespread economic weakness causes income to falter.1115WealthIncome

In this weeks article John Hussman calls this “the bubble right in front of our faces.” As usual with excellent in depth analysis.



If we don’t change the way money is created.

It is time for more people to recognize that we have more deep seated problems. It all ultimately feeds back to the monetary system at the core. This article describes the problem very well:

If we want to connect the creation and distribution of money/credit with productivity, we must issue new money directly to those creating value and boosting productivity, bypassing the privileged few in central and private banks.

By concentrating wealth and power, centrally issued and distributed money doesn’t just subvert democracy. It also optimizes inequality, monopoly, cronyism, stagnation, low social mobility and systemic instability.”


9 Challenges for the world economic system 

Even without reform the financial system is experiencing relentlessly increasing pressure against widespread prosperity, as is described very well in these two articles.



Nomi Prins “Entirely rigged political/financial system”

Not many people can go through the evolution of the political/financial system in such accurate detail as Nomi Prins. This is an excellent in depth interview which exposes how the system really works and how it has evolved since the 2008 collapse.


Despite all these deep seated problems and the overwhelming global economic weakness. The Fed seems to remain adamant that the economy is sufficiently strong and interest rates will nevertheless rise into the teeth of escalating signs of global recession.

Having been wrong on their forecasts for 6 out the last 6 years, they now seem even more sure about raising rates even though the world economy is probably at its weakest point since 2008!

It might be better to look at the forecasts of someone else who has a far better track record than the Fed. Here are Richard Duncan’s latest macrowatch forecasts:











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