Weekly Investment Insight 08302021
1. “Narrow money supply is going off the scales. Yet at Jackson Hole it was never mentioned, except in a footnote. Equally incredible is the gullibility of the investment establishment knowing that money does matter yet was drawn into the Fed’s non-monetary narrative.”
This article considers how QE could be expanded over time as Rudolf von Havenstein and John Law parallels come into view.
2. “LOOK FOR INFLATION TO REMAIN ELEVATED & PERSISTENT!”
“Though Supply Chain issues may prove to be transitory (though many we suspect are permanent), inflation is not transitory for at least five secular reasons:
1. Owner Occupied Rent (OER),
2. Labor Costs (Why bond yields rose on August’s NFP)
3. Import Costs
4. Financing Costs
5. Three Level Government Charges (Explosion in Taxation)”
3. ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index Peaked in March and continues to decline.
What kind of downturn is in store compared to the scale of the previous boom? What will be the policy responce?
4. “It’s hard to dispute that economic growth will weaken further with each future economic expansion. Unfortunately, such has been the case and likely will continue to be the case.”
5. Excess Liquidty in 2021 favors Big Cap US Equities and Treasuries.
In the last 3 months:
1. EFA Ex-US developed equities down
2. EEM emerging markets down
3. IWM Russell 2000 US small caps down
4, OEX S&P 100 up 9%
5. GOOGL up 21%
While inflation exploded to 40 year highs this year, 30 year Treasury yields have risen just 0.28% in the first 9 months.