Weekly Investment Insights. Inflation Policy Extreme. Reflation for now.

October 25, 2021

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https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1451905747235840004

  • 1. The 5 year inflation break even hits 3%! Far above the 2% Federal Reserve objective. The markets are challenging the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target. So why the extreme policy setting? The chart above shows that the gap between Fed Funds and the CPI is now even wider than it was in the 1970s. This does not count the massive levels of QE in place, or record fiscal stimulus. How can the Fed’s stated objective make any sense? See below.

 

  • 2. “In spite of what they say, governments will do nothing about inflation.” The rhetoric about “transitory” inflation remains, both in governments, who are unwilling to reduce massive spending, and in central banks, who are caught between a rock and a hard place, as they have to monetize soaring deficits from highly indebted governments and at the same time defend their strategy of “price stability.” Between those two, guess what they have decided to opt for? Yes, keep printing and say some day it will pass. https://mises.org/wire/governments-love-inflation-and-they-wont-do-anything-stop-it

 

 

 

  • 5. My Money Show Presentation on Tuesday October 19 explains the Fed’s inflation predicament and likely Quad 2 reflation in Q4 2021. Later in the week, Bank stocks and the S&P 500 made new all time highs. The reflation cycle may continue to run longer than many expect given the scale of ongoing intervention, but don’t forget the cycle.

 

 

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