Weekly Investment Insights 08162021

1. The folly of ruling out a collapse. The valuation metric that most closely inversely correlates with poor future long term returns is unequivocal.

2. “Scramble for survival” for the next decade. Don’t miss Larry Lindsay’s Interview.

3. “Noise. A flaw in Human Judgement.” Daniel Kahneman and others. New book, new astonishing insights.  “Wherever there is judgement there is noise”.

4. The Taper debate. Any delay in ‘tapering”, or starting to reduce government asset purchases, is hard to fathom.

5. Precious metals are now at their cheapest levels relative to other commodities since 2009.

 

1. The folly of ruling out a collapse. The valuation metric that most closely inversely correlates with future long term returns is unequivocal. Future expected returns have never been worse and by a magnitude.

“It may be the greatest collective error in the history of investing to pay extreme multiples for extreme earnings that reflect extreme profit margins and extreme government subsidies, while imagining that those multiples also deserve a ‘premium’ for depressed interest rates that reflect depressed structural economic growth.”

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210808/

2. “Scramble for survival” for the next decade. Don’t miss Larry Lindsay’s Interview. 

For several years, Larry  was a Governor of the Federal Reserve System. He was also George W. Bush’s Chief Economic Advisor during the 2000 Presidential campaign, and later held top positions in the Bush Administration.

He and Dan discuss the problems the Fed is facing, how the government is attempting to mask this crisis, and the problems that we’ll likely see accelerate in the coming years.

Larry gives listeners a grim outlook over the next decade, but he also shares what he is doing with his money today, and gives you steps you can take right now to protect yourself.

https://investorhour.com/episodes/currency-war-with-lawrence-lindsey

3. “Noise. A flaw in Human Judgement.” Daniel Kahneman and others. New book, new astonishing insights.

“Wherever there is judgement there is noise”.

4. The Taper debate. Any delay in ‘tapering”, or starting to reduce government asset purchases, is hard to fathom. Perhaps, the system has reached a point of dependence.

 

5. “Precious metals are now at their cheapest levels relative to other commodities since 2009. The other 2 times this ratio reached such depressed levels also marked incredible buying opportunities.”

 

 

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